India v Australia 1st Test ..... If you don't spin it......you won't win it

Bangalore
Starts 0.400 GMT
Thursday 9th October.

Finally we near the end of the drought of international cricket with this mouth watering clash between these fierce rivals.

Their last series in Australia at the beginning of this year was one of the most exciting and controversial of recent times and uppermost in India's mind will be revenge for that narrow 2-1 defeat.

India are coming off the back of another 2-1 defeat, this time away to Sri Lanka. Australia on the back of a 2-0 win in West Indies.

So on the face of it, India are up against it, or are they?

Some faces are more deceiving then others, and I firmly believe it’s the Aussies that are up against it on this tour.

India were undone by the most exciting new talent in world cricket, Ajantha Mendis. His unorthodox action and skills, coupled with Murali at the other end now poses the most lethal spin bowling partnership in the world, especially on their home Sri Lankan pitches. India did well to even win a test there, a feat that I think others will struggle to emulate.

In the onedayers that followed, India showed they were working Mendis out and they went on to win that series.

Australia's 2-0 win in Windies flattered them slightly. It was not plain sailing, Windies regularly threw away good match situations with their famous calypso collapses and slightly stronger teams would have made Australia pay in those situations.

Even in that series win in Windies, Australia's fundamental future weakness was highlighted. Namely spin bowling. These days, in all formats of the game, spin is king, and its especially king on sub continent pitches.

Australia were always going to face a stiff task to replace Shane Warne, not an easy bowler to replace. But all the options they have tried this year have proved disasters.

Brad Hogg retired after the CB series against India after some unconvincing performances in the Tests and CB series.

 Stuart MacGill did not even wait for a series to end as he announced his retirement halfway through the 2nd Test against Windies after embarrassing spells in the first innings.

In came Beau Casson to make his debut, but he looked totally out of his depth, so much so that he was not even considered for this Indian tour.

Jason Krejza and Bryce McGain were chosen for this Indian tour, however McGain has had to return hope after picking up and Injury and he has been replaced by Cameron White.

The omens are not good for Krejza, in the warm game against an Indian presidents XI he returned match figures of 0-199 of 31 overs !

I have seen Cameron White bowl in the past, he has a first class bowling average of 38.24 and believe me, he ain't no Shane Warne either.

Put simply, India facing the likes of Krejza and White after Mendis and Murali will be like a heavyweight boxer facing Snowhite after going 12 rounds with Mike Tyson in his prime....... simply a no contest!

In contrast, India are awash with spinning talent. I the warm up, the second string spinners Ojha and Chawla dominated the Australian batsmen. If the Aussies are struggling to play these two, how will they cope with Harbhajan and Kumble on likely turning tracks? .... Not very well is my guess.

Australia still have decent pace options in Lee and Clark, but these pitches will not be as friendly for them and their slow , low nature will mean that , apart from the new ball, they could struggle to bowl match winning spells.
And even if they do find a pitch that assists them, then India have their own pace men in form in the shape of Ishant Sharma and Zaheer Khan.

So from a balanced bowling attack point of view, only one side has the advantage, that side is India, and that advantage is huge.

So on to the batting. This one is a bit closer.

Hayden, Ponting, Clarke and Hussey remain top draw and capable of big runs.
But one name is conspicuous by his absence. It’s a man that was the difference between the sides in the last series; it’s a man that has got Australia out of some big holes recently. That man is Andrew Symmonds.

He got sent home from the Bangladesh tour for apparently preferring a spot of fishing rather then attending team meetings. He is not on this tour and will be a massive loss for the Aussies. His absence puts more pressure on the top order to perform.

In that top order, I see potential problems too. Hayden has been out injured for most of the year and at nearly 37 years old, he may find returning from this injury harder then in the past. Ponting has been in a form slump most of the year too and, more worryingly for him, in eight previous tests in India, he averages a paltry 12.28, and his chief tormentor has been Harbhajan who has dismissed him 8 times in those tests.

I believe Hussey and Clarke are the best players of spin in this Aussie side and it will be them that will pose India the most problems.

India's batting also has potential problems. Sehwag and Gambhir have been I great form at the top of the order, but the seniors Dravid, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Laxman had a torrid time in Sri Lanka and their confidence will have suffered as a result.

However, their overall record against Australia has been exceptional and they will know there is no Ajantha Mendis or Murali to torment them this time.

A lot of talk in the Indian papers that this series could be a last chance saloon for some of India's seniors, they never need any incentives to perform against Australia, but this will give them more reason then normal to prove themselves.

Ok, so how do I see the series panning out?

The general pattern will be one of Australia needing to take 3 or 4 early wickets with the new ball otherwise, with no decent spinning options with older ball, Indian batsmen will invariably post massive first innings scores and Australia will find themselves trying to save the tests rather then winning them.

The pitches will almost certainly start to crumble on days 4 and 5 so first innings leads will be crucial and it will be the team that has the balanced bowling attack to take advantage of those crumbling tracks that will prevail.

I really cannot see how this Aussie bowling attack, without back up from a class spinner or two will bowl India out twice on these home tracks, with the exception of a possible dead rubber win later in the series  so there is no doubt in my mind that the series will be won by India.

Question is, how comprehensive will that series win be. I believe India will win by at least a two test margin, with 2-0 the most likely outcome. But if all the pitches prove to be dustbowls, then 3-0, or, however unlikely it seems, even 4-0 cannot be ruled out.


So what’s the bet?

The play is to have series correct score bets, as well as this first test.

My advice is as follows:

In this 1st Test, BACK India for 3 points @ 3.5 on Betfair

And in the Series correct score market:

BACK India for 2 points to win 2-0 @ 10.0 at  Extrabet
          India for 1.5 points to win  3-0 @ 21.0 at Totesport
          India for 0.5 point to win 4-0 @ 50.0 Totesport, Boylesports
          India for 1 point to win 2-1 @ 9.0 at Totesport


Join me, this really is a case of "if you don't spin it.....you won’t win it".

Bigjoe