England v Wales
10th October 2008 - 19:35 BST

Well I guess you should tread a bit warily with warm up games but having seen the Wales squad I've just got to have an involvement. On paper this looks like the worst Wales team I have ever seen. They have only three players from last season's Super League and they are fringe players at best in Mills, Halley and Bracek (who is stepping down to the National Leagues next year). Ok, they have a core of Celtic players but everyone knows their best come with an Australian accent.
The England players have all had a break, have been in training camp and will be either trying to impress for a starting place or to earn a stand-by position for the World Cup.

With so few internationals it is always difficult to put a handicap mark on teams but I've looked at the strength of the players and tried to convert them in to the strength of a domestic team. For England if it was a club side I would say it would be a SL play-off team. Not quite the strength of Leeds or St.Helens but a decent enough outfit. The Wales team would be upper National League 1 at best.
So hypothetically how would I price up say, Bradford versus Whitehaven in a Challenge Cup tie. I'd have to be around 50pts start to the Welsh side and as long as the English gel and aren't too rusty I feel the 36pts should be beaten with ease. It is a big start if a few balls go to ground but at best the Welsh could keep it around the 30pt mark while at worst it could get embarrassing. Keep your eye on the spreads, I don't see much downside buying in the late 30s.

Pick: England -36 (h'cap) 2pts @ 1.91 Betfred, Boylesports, Ladbrokes
 
the man