The Carnegie Challenge Cup

This weekend the next round of the Challenge cup is being played and it is always difficult for the layers to price up cup competitions especially when teams feature from different divisions. Personally, I feel I have fairly good handle of the differences and hopefully I'll be a step ahead of the bookmakers. I have a few games where my numbers disagree:

Gateshead v Oldham



9th May 15:00 BST

Although this tie features a team in Oldham travelling from a lower division I don't see much difference in their overall abilities. Oldham are a top Championship 1 team whilst Gateshead are struggling in the league above. The gap isn't that great between those two divisions. Gateshead have found a little form with home wins versus Doncaster and Sheffield but again they are two opponents in the lower reaches. Oldham have been a little disappointing especially with their big home defeat to Dewsbury but players like Rob Roberts, James Coyle and Paul Highton can match the Gateshead outfit.

I still had to make Gateshead favourites but only by 4-6pts and the 10pts on offer gives a nice buffer.

Pick:  Oldham +10 2pts @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

 
Castleford v Halifax

 

9th May 18:00 BST

Always a little dangerous taking on a Super League team against one from a lower division but I really feel Halifax can be competitive here. They are the only unbeaten team in professional rugby league this season and they will go high in confidence. Ultimately I don't think they can produce a shock win but it's all about the start.
Castleford, after a bright start, have been a little patchy in recent weeks. Beaten by a poor Hull side last week and a scraped victory at bottom side Celtic previous to that. Fax aren't too far away from being the equals of Celtic. I had Cas by 16-18pts

Pick: Halifax +24 3pts @ 1.91 with William Hill or Sky Bet

 
Batley v Salford



10th May 15:00 BST

Struggling to see how the layers have come up with this mark. Basically bet365 were up first with 30pts (which didn't last long) and the sheep have followed with similar marks. Batley have suffered some massive defeats by Halifax, Barrow and Toulouse and whilst that trio look top teams in their division, Salford is a step up again.
Salford now seem to be settling in to Super League having recorded wins against Warrington and Leeds and at least avoiding the hammerings they were suffering in other recent fixtures. Too fast, too strong for a Batley side that lack both those attributes of sizze and pace. My handicap was..... wait for it... 52pts! I may be a touch on the high side but if I was playing layer I'd be a lot more comfortable with my mark than the 32pts on offer. Fill your boots.

Pick: Salford -32 4pts @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

 
Huddersfield v Rochdale

 

10th May 11:30 BST

I know this is a very big start to cover and it may be worth holding fire until we are sure any bad weather won't scupper it but it is still short of my number.
The difference between a top Super League side and a team with only one victory in Championship 1 is enormous. This really will be a question of how many. I can't envisage anything below a forty point margin and eighty wouldn't surprise me. I had Huddersfield with home advantage by 60pts.

Pick: Huddersfield -52 2pts @ 1.91 with Sky Bet or Ladbrokes
 
The Man