The Super League Grand Final
By The Man

Some cynical people say of Super League that they have 27 weekly rounds; 3 weeks of play-offs and then Leeds meet St.Helens in the Grand Final. Perhaps this wasn't so hard to predict way back in February. The facts are that these two have proven themselves once more to be the pick of the bunch and the pack will just have to content themselves with gradual improvement to hang on to their coat tails.

These two have such strong squads that they don't need to make wholesale changes year on year. The core of their teams are so strong and they can welcome only one or two high quality additions.

Leeds added Newcastle and Australian Test star Danny Buderus to their squad whilst Tony Puletua, the man mountain from the Pacific Islands, joined the

The "Man Mountain" Tony Puletua

Saints. Buderus has been plagued by injury and really it is the tried and tested who won last year's encounter that have earned this final slot. Puletua on the other hand has had a big season and it was more than needed with Jason Cayless missing the bulk of the year, they've certainly missed him.

Leeds go in to this final pretty much at full strength with the exception of the aforementioned Buderus. Big Ali Lauititi is set to return after missing the semi final with a virus. He will add impetus to the Leeds attack when he enters the fray, if as expected he starts on the bench. Lauititi is an undoubted match winner and, with his basketball hands, can open up the tightest of games.

The Leeds side is very solid, Peacock and Leuluai do the hard yards at prop allowing Burrow and McGuire to feed off the space and if that isn't enough Webb, Hall, Donald and Senior have all been prolific scorers in the outside backs this term. They go in to this game as rightful favourites as they have been very consistent in the latter stages of the season. They seem to have found the knack of timing their run to hit top form come play-off time. Perhaps their early Challenge cup exits are planned moves?

So what of St.Helens? For me their long run of being the top team of the Super League era is about to come to end. The team is breaking up with the likes of Cayless, Long and Gilmour leaving and Wellens and Cunningham past their sell by date. Only young Kyle Eastmond, from their batch of youngsters, seems big enough to fill their boots.

The Saints team has been so inconsistent this season and all their attacking flair seems to have disappeared. Some fans are pointing the finger at new coach Mick Potter but I have another theory. Following England's collapse in

Looking half the player he was James Roby

the World Cup last season a lot of blame was laid at the interpretation of the tackle. The theory was that the NRL players only were dominant because they were able to slow the play the ball down. I'm sure the British referees were instructed to give similar leniency in the tackle. The days of the quick play the ball seem to be over. And to me Saints were the best exponent of getting on a roll. It's no surprise to me that James Roby in particular has looked half the player he was as the dummy half gaps aren't there to be exploited.

Unfortunately, the NRL has introduced two referees and their play the balls have increased in pace. I'm afraid if England get refereed by a Southern Hemisphere referee we'll be having the opposite moan this year as we again struggle to contain the Aussies. But that's another story for a few weeks time.

Back to the final and I'm not totally discounting St.Helens for one last Samson like performance. Certainly they have the personnel to win the big games and they go in to this one perhaps in the preferable position of being the underdogs. Whilst their attack seems blunted their defence is as strong as ever and it may not take that many points to win the game.

The bookmakers have Leeds as favourites between 4pts and 6pts and I can't argue with that on what I have seen recently, although I'm gravitating towards the 4pts rather than 6.

So I'm afraid it is no bet from me with regard to the match odds and handicaps and I'll content myself to be a layer on Betfair. I've priced Leeds at 1.57 and St.Helens at 2.4 which isn't close to the front row at the moment but hopefully there will be some momentum in one of the teams' prices to ensure I have a wager by kick off.

The market that I will be keeping my eye on, either with the spread companies or fixed odds, is the total points. As I have said above Saints have looked ordinary in attack but won't give much away and I am expecting a typically bruising Grand Final encounter with defences holding sway. There are no markets formed at the moment but if I could wager under around the 40pt mark I would be delighted. Also keep an eye on Bet365. They have been going even money on their handicap markets for live matches this season, which is to be applauded. They currently are giving Saints 4pts start but they are a very reactive company and quite prone to moving prices if any amount of money hits their lines. If was to move to 6pts I'd be tempted in to a small wager on St.Helens. 6pts start at 1.91 with the other firms is just not enough value for me.
 
The man