Rugby League Four Nations
By The Man

England v New Zealand



7th November 18:00 GMT
Sky Sports 1 (17:45-20:25), Sky Sports HD1 (17:45-20:25)

England and New Zealand lock horns at Huddersfield to decide the right to face Australia in next week's final, assuming of course that Australia get over the formality that is France.

England have again made changes with the trio from the right side defence all paying the price for being opened up so easily by Australia. Tom Briscoe, Smith and McGuire all depart the scene with Fox, Bridge and Eastmond their replacements, Wilkin taking the promoted Eastmond's place on the bench.

Whilst the first half defensive performance was at times schoolboyish against Australia I still feel there is a general lack of quality in the English game in the back division. I think I wrote a couple of weeks ago

Out of his depth today? Chris Bridge

that this was the worst English backline I had ever seen; well the changes don't improve things. Players like Bridge and Fox should be nowhere near international level. They are solid clubmen, nothing more.

That said, England do possess players capable of turning over the World Champions. I like the look of Tomkins and Eastmond in the halves. They may not be structured but they can do the unpredictable and open up defences. If Sinfield gives them a helping hand with more of an organisational role the halfbacks could flourish. And the pack is capable. Burgess and Crabtree made great impact from the bench last week and the whole pack is capable of gaining the yardish required to threaten.

New Zealand were very impressive in the first hit up against Australia but looked strangely out of sorts in the opening half against the French. Eventually they showed their quality, though the wide margin victory probably flattered them. I think the bounce factor had a little to do with that flat French first half and I fully expect their batteries to be recharged for this crucial fixture.

From a betting perspective I'm afraid I am in complete agreement with the layers. With only two major fixtures a week and both being high exposure games it's perhaps not surprising that my figures agree and just because it's important and just because it's on TV and just because I'm writing this article aren't reasons to try to invent wagers. As a punter you should be happy to say "no bet". Often the well thought out wagers can be undone well you look at your betting record (you do keep betting records don't you?) over the season. The "no bets" could well be the key to profitability.

The bookies' handicaps are between 6 and 8pts start for the English and that's where mine sat. New Zealand have more class and more pace and power out wide. That said, we are only talking about a converted try margin of supremacy and England are capable of picking up a victory, but unfortunately when the handicap is right then the match odds prices tend to follow and no ricks there.

 
France v Australia

 

7th November 14:30 GMT
BBC1 (14:00-16:30)

On to the France and Australia fixture and it has been suggested that there has been collusion between rival bookmakers as virtually all the high street has come up with the same handicap mark of 48pts. Mine was slightly lower but still not enough to induce a wager on that market. Australia have made changes for this fixture but there is so much strength in depth that the team looks little weaker. Crucially the halves in Thurston and Lockyer remain and they are the two main cogs in the green and gold wheel.

France are boosted by the return of the Catalan quartet of Greenshields, Pelo, Raguin and Ferriol and the team looks much stronger than last week.

France have started off very well in both their opening fixtures. They actually led at half time against the English and were only 4pts adrift of New Zealand early in the second half, which leads me on to my wager. I like the idea of getting 22pts start for the 1st half for the French. I know Australia were awesome in the first period against England but with new combinations in the back division and the absence of the two main strike players in Inglis and Slater, they may take time to gel. Even better is the 25.5pts on the exchanges and if you can get a decent price on that market I would. I don't like recommending exchange prices though, unless there is a mass of money up, as it's not really fair as I accept the price could easily vanish. I'll content myself with Sportingbet and Paddy Power's 22pts for a wager. For those looking for a larger half time h'cap I would not put you off taking the +24 at 1.73 with Skybet.
 
Pick: France +22pts (1st half handicap) v Australia 2pts @ 1.91 with Paddy Power & Sportingbet