The Four Nations Final

By The Man

England v Australia



14th November 19:30 GMT
Sky Sports 2 (19:00-21:30), Sky Sports HD2 (19:00-21:30)

I knew England had it in them but it was still a pleasant surprise that they put in such a professional performance against New Zealand to reach this final. I liked the move of Sinfield to the hooker position that allowed Burgess to start and the English pack really muscled up. There is little doubt that the forwards are a match for any nation. A final appearance was the minimum required to put British rugby back on the map after the World Cup but it will be a very tough ask to win the trophy.

The final is of course a repeat of the group fixture and if there ever was a tale of two halves that was it. Australia came fast out of the traps and flew in to an unassailable lead and they exposed the ponderous back division. It isn't so much the lack of pace but the inability to read the Australians miss-moves. Too many English players come flying out of the line. There's got to be an element of trust in the slide defence and the outside backs need to number up. If I was a winger or centre I'd say job done if my opposite failed to score, let the players in the middle worry about the middle.

The second half was a different story as England, on the back of some decent field position, looked threatening and at one stage the impossible comeback looked possible. In order to repeat that England need to be squeaky clean in terms of the penalty count and not make any unforced errors. If you give the Australians field position they will punish you and they are also more than capable , as they showed, of long range tries if you turn the ball over without the defence set.

England's kicking game was a lot better against the Kiwis but this was helped by their back three who couldn't handle the high swirling ball. Billy Slater, for all his talents, also has his moments and England need to attack when they do kick the ball high.

So which half will be repeated? To be honest I'm not sure. It could be either or then again it could be something completely different. I've little doubt that this Australian side is capable of running up a really big score in the style of when these two teams last met in a final at Elland Road, by the same token England could, just could grind out a victory. More likely is that England give everything and just fall short. Australia just have too much class when it matters and have numerous players capable of the big play when it matters. The handicaps are in the 12-14pts range and Australia match odds sat around 1.2. To me all the marks are fair. My handicap was 12pts and I'd be tempted for the English if I could get 16pts, but alas at the moment I can't. Match odds of 1.2 Australia is a speculative laying figure for me as opposed to backing and that is the price I have sat unmatched on the exchange. If the weather was to be really poor it would sway me in the direction of England as you would want the better forwards if the rain came down, that and the fact that the start is also useful if the scores are low. Again I would look at going short of points in the 40s if my rain dance is successful. Best keep an eye on the weather sites though or have a contact in Leeds because I'm sure the spread companies will be doing the same and be quick to react.

So no account bet from me for the final game of the season but a few pointers that may see an involvement.
 
Last game of a long season, hope you have enjoyed the articles and made a little money along the way. Time to put my feet up for a while until January when it all starts again.
 
The Man