This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

Warrington v Wigan



17:30 GMT 20th February

To be a successful gambler then there is a fairly simple formula to follow. You have to identify opportunities to bet when you believe that the prices are better than the true expectations of winning. Forget all about picking winners, identifying incorrect prices is key. Obviously that's the tricky part and subjective. If you are hoping to identify incorrect prices then obviously you have to produce some prices yourself, making your own tissue. Otherwise you will have nothing to compare the prices on offer with. Some people don't do this and are reasonably successful; they go with their gut feeling. Actually they are going through the process it's just that the comparison is going on in their head.

For the prices on offer to be wrong then you are taking on the bookmakers who employ full time odds compilers. In some ways I am relatively lucky that I have picked Rugby League as the sport I look at most in depth for my wagering. The odds compilers have to price up every single fixture and they do make mistakes. I'm also not sure how seriously these bookmakers take rugby league. There are only one or two making the handicaps and the rest of the market copy. They realise their limitations and are quick to restrict winning punters and move their lines very quickly if taking a bet from a face.

This weekend I feel they have done a reasonable job and not many of their lines are too far away from mine.
 
However, it's Wigan that will be taking my money this weekend. I think we can look forward to a cracker on Saturday at the Halliwell Jones stadium as two of the heavyweights clash. They have both got off to an impressive, unbeaten start but I have been more impressed with Wigan. They have conceded only two tries and their commitment and enthusiasm in defence has been outstanding. They also have had enough flair to post 30+ in both their fixtures.

Warrington on the other hand were very sluggish in their victory at Castleford and my pre-season opinion of them went down. They got out of jail with Castleford mistakes and I can't see Wigan letting them off so lightly. They still have many fine players and match winners and are more than capable of winning this fixture but I believe, as I alluded to above, that the prices on offer are wrong. We won't get to see the accuracy of my market making compared to the bookmakers until much later in a season. It's the long run that counts and individual losses don't put me off as long as I feel I have followed the correct process to identify my bets.

Wigan have a woeful record at the HJ but they did pull off a fine pre-season victory there when both teams were at full strength and that is re-assuring for the wager. Losing Cameron Phelps at full-back is a blow. It is most likely that either Roberts or Richards will swap to that role with Goulding coming in on the wing. Warrington have been boosted by the news that both Morley and Carvell have avoided a ban after being cited and Solomona may be added to the team this week.

Given that I rate Wigan the better team but that they have to concede home advantage then I had this game as a pick 'em affair. The 4 start on offer at even money therefore looks good to me. I can see a really close game and that start, hopefully, should just tip the balance in my favour. 4.5pts start would be even better if you managed to get a decent price on the exchanges.
 
Wigan +4 3pts @ 2 with Bet365, Paddy Power or William Hill
 
Warrington Wolves squad:

L. Anderson, V. Anderson, Atkins, Bridge, Briers, Carvell, Cooper, Grix, Harrison, Higham, King, Mathers, Monaghan, Morley, Myler, Riley, Solomona, Westwood, Wood.
 
Wigan Warriors squad:

Roberts, Gleeson, Carmont, Richards, S. Tomkins, Leuluai, Fielden, Riddell, Coley, Hansen, J. Tomkins, O'Loughlin, Prescott, Bailey, Paleaaesina, Deacon, O'Carroll, Mossop, Goulding.

The Man