This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

Two account bets for Super League this weekend:

Leeds v Harlequins



5th March 20:00 GMT

I really wanted to oppose Leeds this weekend. I reckon the World Club game will have taken a lot out of them, coupled with a five day turnaround. They will miss the direction, field and goal kicking from Kevin Sinfield and Scott Donald showed how much he was missed as Callum Watkins blew two golden chances to go down in the hall of fame.

However, they face Harlequins, a team riddled with injuries, short on confidence and with little invention. They have added Esders and Temata to the ever increasing sick bay and they are not a team to trust with anyone's money. For me the 22pt start is too high but it makes me too uncomfortable to back the Quins.

A far better option for me is the total points line offered by the spread companies. As I have said I can't see where the Quins points will come from. There is little pace in the side and their gameplan is basic. They will hope to complete sets and get in an arm wrestle and profit from kicks. That to me is the height of their ambition.

Leeds by contrast could cut loose and as with any bet there is a danger that things could go awry. However, I see them being off colour. Although the weather has improved this week the Headingley pitch is still a mess and sticky underfoot so the extra pace may not be as significant. Daft as it sounds from my preview I wouldn't completely rule out a Quins win but if they do it would be very low scoring. More likely is that Leeds will have a little too much and I expect a similar result for Quins as the Hull game last week. I see a likely make up in the thirties, can't see it hitting much above fifty yet wouldn't be shocked if it ended in the teens.

Leeds Rhinos squad:

Webb, Delaney, Senior, Hall, McGuire, Burrow, Leuluai, Buderus, Peacock, Jones-Buchanan, Lauitiiti, Diskin, Eastwood, Bailey, Kirke, Burgess, Pitts, Watkins, Bush.
 
Harlequins RL squad:

Bibb, Bolger, Bryan, Clubb, Golden, Howell, Jones-Bishop, Krasniqi, McCarthy-Scarsbrook, Melling, O'Callaghan, Orr, Randall, Sharp, Smith, Ward, Wilkes, Williams, Williamson

Pick: Sell Total Pts @ 42 with Sporting Index for 0.3pts

 
Bradford v Wigan 


 
5th March 20:00 GMT
Sky Sports 1 (19:30-22:30), Sky Sports HD1 (19:30-22:30)

I wanted to take the -4pts handicap on this one but the price has been cut to 1.8 with Coral and the match odds price on offer is still equivalent to a 4pts handicap so I'll take that. Some poor fools were offering as high as 1.9 for decent money on the exchanges earlier in the week but I'm afraid yours truly has taken big advantage of that and a lot of prices down from that. Bradford could win but that price was wrong and I still feel it's wrong.

Let's look at the facts. Wigan have started the season in tremendous form. You could argue that home wins over Hull KR, Crusaders and Catalan are only to be expected but it has been the manner of their performances. They seem eager in both defence and attack. At times the defence has been brutal and against Catalan they completed the first half with 100% completions. No errors is a rare event. Add in the superb back to the wall victory against Warrington and you have a team brimming with confidence.

It could be argued that Bradford have turned the corner after back to back victories but I'm not convinced. Bradford have the look of a mid table team that could scrape in to the play-offs. Wigan have the look of potential champions. Bradford still, for me, have too many very average players. Sykes, Nero, Reardon, Halley - in fact the whole threequarter line lack class. I concede they have a workmanlike pack that can build a platform for halfbacks Orford and Kearney but I just don't see them matching up to Wigan.

My kind of handicap was in the 8-10pt region. I would still take the -4pts on offer even at the reduced odds and the -6pts at evens with bet365 is also worthy of consideration. It's not really a question of me taking the safe option with the match odds it's just that I see that wager as having greater value. I play bookmaker on the exchanges and to give you an idea of my laying price, albeit with some over-round built in, it would be 1.3.

Bradford Bulls squad:

Sykes, Langley, Sheriffe, Kopczak, Donaldson, Scruton, Menzies, Kearney, Godwin, L'Estrange, Halley, Nero, Lynch, Reardon, Hall, Crookes, Worrincy, Whitehead, Orford.
 
Wigan Warriors squad:

Roberts, Gleeson, Carmont, Richards, S. Tomkins, Leuluai, Fielden, Riddell, Coley, Hansen, J. Tomkins, O'Loughlin, Prescott, Bailey, Paleaaesina, Deacon, O'Carroll, Mossop, Goulding.

Pick: Wigan outright 3pts @ 1.57 with Coral or Sky Bet
 
The Man