This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

The last sixteen of the challenge cup features this weekend and unfortunately the wagers don't stand off the page as clearly as the last round though there are fixtures that I'm prepared to risk my hard earned cash.
 
Hunslet v Barrow

 

9th May 15:30 GMT

Much like the victory for Barrow in the last round at Castleford this is very much a cup final for Hunslet. They will go in to this game full of confidence. After an opening blip at home to Oldham their league campaign has been faultless since and they have run in some big scores as they try to justify their favouritism tag for promotion. They had a tremendous away victory at Halifax in the Northern Rail cup and, although Fax may have taken them lightly, it was no fluke on the day. That gives an indication that if they play to their very best they are capable of victory.

Getting a mid-twenty start for a game I feel they have a chance of winning is my idea of a decent wager. Hunslet couldn't really have met Barrow at a better time. Although at their very best there is a gulf in class the squad has been hit with withdrawals. Matt James, James Coyle, Anthony Blackwood, James Nixon and Andrew Henderson all look set to be missing and there are one or two doubts about others. They do have a decent squad to cope with these setbacks and at their best there is a gulf in class but I just feel that the visitors will be highly motivated, have no shortage of ability and the replacements for the Barrow injured will take time to gel. I had Barrow by 18pts.

Pick: Hunslet +24 3pts @ 1.91 with Bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Skybet, Stan James and William Hill

Crusaders v Catalan

  

9th May 15:30 GMT
BBC2 (15:10-17:30)

There has been talk in the Catalan camp that they are already too far adrift of the pack to push for a Super League play-off slot and the Challenge Cup will be their focus. However, it is fine talking like that but where are they suddenly going to get their form from? The team has suffered badly with the loss of Adam Mogg and Clint Greenshields and they lack quality. They have already visited Wrexham in a dour affair and came away pointless and Crusaders have pushed on since that game.

Anyone who saw the Magic weekend can't help but have been impressed with their shut out of Bradford whilst Catalan were out-enthused by a limited Castleford side. The handicap on offer is very similar to the league fixture but I feel they have gone in different directions since then.

I concede that motivation is a big factor in rugby league and the French will be up for the battle but it is their basic ability that I am questioning. Their goal-line defence looks fragile especially to a kicking game and Michael Witt is the perfect man to exploit this part of the game. Crusaders have been slowing but surely adding quality to their squad and Jarrod Sammut is the latest who looks the part.

With home advantage I had Crusaders by 10-12pts and am going to play on the handicap. For the less brave the 1.44 on offer for match odds is a fair bet given that this is the correct price for a 6pt start.
 
Pick: Crusaders -6 2pts @ 1.91Stan James or Bluesq

I feel the other fixtures aren't too far away from the correct lines although I do feel Blackpool's 60pt start at Leeds is a touch on the high side. Rob Burrow, Matt Diskin and Carl Ablett miss out for Leeds and Blackpool are a half decent Championship One side. I'll be trying to lay Leeds on the exchanges.

The lower leagues have been priced earlier than normal and without going in to great detail there are a couple of games that have handicaps away from my own:
 
Whitehaven v Keighley

 

9th May 15:00 GMT

Keighley are outclassed in this division and although Whitehaven have not performed well this season they still have the basis of a Championship team and tend to perform reasonably well at home. I had Haven by 14pts.
 
Pick: Whitehaven -10 2pts @ 1.91 With Ladbrokes

Swinton v Rochdale

 

8th May 19:00 GMT

Swinton have made some decent signings in the last few weeks and the fine win at York saw a marked improvement. I'm surprised the bookmakers aren't giving that result more respect and they face a Rochdale team that are no more than average in this league. I had Swinton by 14pts.

Pick: Swinton -8 3pts @ 1.91 with Sky Bet

The Man