This Week's Rugby League - Part Two

By The Man

I'm going to add another wager from Super League to add to those mentioned. Incidentally, I realise I've already made my pick and my money is down but for any late readers I would lower the stake on Wakefield as Ben Jeffries, their half-back, has pulled out after an injury in training. Make it 2pts instead of 3pts. So to the next wager:

Salford v St.Helens



15th May 18:00 GMT

Yes, I must be mad! I'm backing a team on the wrong end of a mauling in their most recent encounter against a St.Helens team that is firing and can run up points for fun. I have my reasons.

Firstly, if you had no clue whatsoever and just made random picks on rugby league then probably the worst things you could do is back a double digit favourite away from home. Conversely a double digit dog could be worth backing even with no knowledge at all. No matter what the favourite camp will tell you when they are expected to win by such a wide margin often the intensity is lacking. Players are only human and they can't peak for every game. They will feel they just have to go through the motions to win. Playing away from home reduces the effect of having to please the crowd which again lowers the intensity.

For this fixture we have the nowadays rare situation of a disagreement between the bookmakers. There is a 6pt gap between the 18pts and 24pts on offer. I guarantee that if you had the luxury of a 6pt gap between handicaps and simply picked the best handicaps you would return a decent profit on the season whichever end of the scale you chose. Many punters, I'm afraid, are lazy and place with their favourite or local bookmaker or where funds are tied up. Don't be a lazy punter, shop around.

I'm banking a little on all of the above. St.Helens have had a tiring fixture list recently and I feel that this is the one game they may drop off. Salford have the benefit of a week off and won this fixture last season. They aren't a great side but if they don't get blown away at the start they can be competitive. There is even a slight chance they could win this one and I'm happy enough to put a price ever so slightly above the bookmakers on the exchanges. I had Saints by 18pts.

Pick: Salford +24 2pts @ 1.83 with Stan James
 
The Man