This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

After a blank weekend when I couldn't find a bet I have thoughts in most of this week's Super League fixtures and I have managed to identify some wagers with the bookmakers whilst I will be staying the right side of some of the other teams on the exchanges.
 
Huddersfield v Bradford

 
6th June 15:00 GMT

Bradford put up a heroic performance in defeat against Warrington in the cup and they were slightly unfortunate not to progress in a game that could have gone either way. However, I feel that the effort and defeat will have a deflating effect and they will find it difficult to match the intensity for this fixture. So often when teams put in a big effort then the next game suffers.

Huddersfield have problems of their own recently with the coach Nathan Brown and star man Brett Hodgson both announcing their departures at the end of the season and their form has suffered. You need to remember though that they have had a tough fixture list playing both Wigan and Warrington twice in recent weeks and there is no real disgrace in losing to those top teams. In fact results-wise it would have been expected in terms of raw ability of the squads.

Huddersfield will have benefited greatly from their week off and I believe the two week gap will see a focussed and committed Giants side. David Fa'alongo, Danny Brough and Paul Whatuira are all expected to return to the side and I have them at least equal in terms of ability to the Bulls. The deciding factor for the wager is the start on offer coupled with the challenge cup effecting the Bradford outfit. I had Huddersfield, as slight favourites by 2pts and BetFred had a handicap of +6 but I'd still be keen to take the 4pts start and wouldn't put off anyone taking the 2.5 match odds.

Pick: Huddersfield +4 4pts @ 1.91 with Betfred


Castleford v Wigan



6th June 15:00 GMT

Similar reasoning is behind this wager with a little less confidence. Wigan were involved in a very draining game with Leeds while Castleford were putting their feet up and that game is bound to have an effect. If you blindly backed teams having the benefit of a rest against teams who had a tough encounter I'm convinced you would have a profitable betting system. The bookmakers may be aware of it but they can't go out on a limb because the betting public don't seem as switched on, hence the high double-digit start on offer.

The doubts about this game are simple, Wigan are a lot better than Castleford and very capable of running up a score. If Castleford don't turn up with the correct attitude then the tiring effect will not be so great. It will be the tackling that takes the petrol out of the tank so Cas really needs to respect possession. You don't get nearly so tired when you are running in tries.

I believe that they will turn up. The week's break has again boosted the squad with players returning in the shape of Kirk Dixon, Paul Jackson and James Evans and I wouldn't completely rule out a shock away victory. I had Wigan by 14-16pts.

Pick: Castleford +20 2pts @ 1.91 with Bet365, Boylesports & Betfred

My final wager is a spread bet:
 
Salford v Warrington

 

4th June 20:00 GMT

The sun is shining in the North West of England and that is often a recipe for points. The weather is such a massive factor in point’s bets; the good weather aids handling, the firmer ground speeds the game up and often fatigues the players so affecting the tackling commitment.

We have two perfect teams for this type of bet. I don't envisage an arm wrestle. Anyone who has seen Warrington recently will know that they are off-loading for fun and this can result in a lot of points. I see Warrington scoring plenty and if Salford want to win the spoils they must also chance their arm. They showed in beating St.Helens recently that to take them on is the way to beat the topsides.

These two shared 84pts recently at Murrayfield when the Salford defence completely shut up shop and whilst I expect that department to improve I also feel that their recent wins will give the confidence to score more in attack. Warrington had a tough cup encounter and I am again questioning their mental ability to get up for lowly Salford. Defence is often the first to go when the commitment is down a notch. For me this bet has minimal downside. Mid forties is the worst scenario whilst there is a possibility of a Murrayfield repeat.

Pick: Buy Salford v Warrington Pts @ 0.3pts @ 53 with SpreadEx
 
In the other fixtures I want to be with Hull against Saints. Hull have men returning and the loss of Kyle Eastmond is a major blow. I will be on the right side of Wakefield too though the lines weren't quite high enough to tempt a wager whilst I can't argue too much with the lines at Harlequins and Hull KR.
 
The Man