This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

I can't find an edge on tonight's re-arranged Super League match between Crusaders and Harlequins. As ever coach Brian Noble has found a way of getting his teams in top form at the business part of the season and they will look at this game as a must win for their play-off aspirations. They have won their last four games whilst Harlequins have gone off the boil. The handicaps on offer are around the 12pt mark and I can't disagree with that. I do, however, have some thoughts and wagers for the Challenge Cup semi finals.
 
Leeds v St.Helens
 


7th August 14:00 GMT
BBC1

A repeat of the last three Grand Finals and the prize of a Wembley final beckons. Leeds have had an indifferent season having failed to win ten of their twenty four fixtures, hardly the stuff of a Champion side. However, I remain convinced that they can compete with the very best and are formidable runners for this trophy and retaining their SL crown, even if they have to do it tough from a low ranking league position.

The core of the title winning side remains and I feel they have a focus about the Challenge Cup this season. They have already disposed of Wigan in dramatic circumstances and have defeated all the other leading lights such as Warrington and Saints themselves in Super League. On their day they can still claim to be the topside.
By contrast Saints have not been able to retain all of the stars that have seen them to previous Challenge Cup and Grand Finals. They have had a host of injuries and key players like Sean Long, Lee Gilmour and Jason Cayless have moved on. And yet, Saints have defied any critics and the youngsters who have come in have done a remarkable job in keeping them near to the top of the tree.

Saints have been in the most consistent form of the two but I am going to argue that their is absolutely nothing between these sides and the victors will simply be who performs best of the day or has the rub of the green. Leeds have players who have been there and bought the T-shirt whilst it will be a first major semi final for some of the Saints lads, that may well count for something.

The prices for this game have been around for some time and initially they were in agreement with my thoughts that they couldn't be split. However, during this week punters must have started to get more seriously involved and the plunge has been in the Saints direction. I feel, as ever, that punters have reacted to the most recent form. Saints were involved in a classic at Warrington whilst Leeds were a little off the pace against Wigan. If anything though this may well mean that Saints lack a little petrol in the tank, big games take a lot out of players physically and mentally. I still retain the opinion that this is a scratch game. The drift on the high street now means we can acquire 2.2 on Leeds but I don't feel that the price has reached its limit. The exchanges are always a good guide to where the price is going and Leeds are currently 2.34. Bearing in mind there could well be an eighty-minute draw I believe the true price to be around 2.1, so for me 2.34 is value and is recommended to be taken. Alternatively a lay of Saints at any price below 1.9 would represent decent business and gives you the cushion of the draw.
 
Pick: Leeds 2.34 3pts with Betfair
 
Catalan v Warrington
 


8th August 14:00 GMT
BBC2

There is little doubt that the cup has been the main focus for Catalan. They have had a lot of luck with the draw but now sit just one game from the final. Their form in recent weeks has improved significantly and that has coincided with the return of Clint Greenshields and Casey McGuire. Catalan go in to this tie virtually at full strength for the first time this season and they are capable of springing a surprise. Only two weeks ago they defeated Warrington in France so they know they have the tools for victory.

Warrington has lost their last two but still has had a tremendous season. On paper they should be too strong with stars aplenty. They showed recently at Wigan that they could beat the very best. That took a lot out of them and two defeats have followed but I sense an eye on this fixture.

For my handicapping I judged that Catalan will play above them and put up a tough fight but ultimately Warrington will be too strong. My sort of handicap was Warrington by 10pts and I see the handicaps on offer are generally at the 12pt mark. However, what has enticed the small wager is that I can get even money for the French. The standard 1.91 would have been no play for me but the more generous offer has sucked me in. Generally I like the decent sized starts for teams that have a chance of victory and I would not completely rule this out. I have a lay price of 1.22 on Warrington sat on the exchanges and it wouldn't perturb me in the slightest if it was matched for big money.
 
Pick: Catalan +12 2pts @ 2.0 with Bet365
 
The Man