This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

The final round of Super League fixtures and it is one that has a few meaningless games whilst others have a lot riding on them.

Warrington travel to Harlequins after their magnificent cup success and have rested a number of their senior players. That's a decision I like, the players coming in are fresh with a point to prove and that decision may well mitigate a potential banana skin. I expect the cup to still be a factor, Quins have prepared for a fortnight whilst Warrington will have been in celebratory mode for much of this week. Quins are playing the final game for their coach, Brian McDermott, and I expect them to be fired up but I still feel they are short of class and Warrington can come through with a patchy performance. I had Wire by 10pts as do the bookmakers.
 
Wigan collect the league leader’s shield this evening and will want to put on a show. I believe they will as Bradford will prove themselves once again to be an average side capable of buckling. There's a lot of competition in the Wigan ranks as a number of youngsters have come through the ranks and retained their spots and I don't expect them to take the foot off the gas. I really think this could be a big score yet I still have to produce a realistic tissue bearing in mind all possible outcomes. I plumped for a start of 26pts, the bookmakers slightly lower. I'm going to play on this game but my preferred option is a spread bet and it is a straightforward buy of Wigan's supremacy @ 26. I appreciate that is the same as my handicap but given that there is a potential blow out I would have had my spread quote at 28-31.
 
Huddersfield could show their greater talent in France but with nothing to play for they could lack motivation and the French may at last put on a show for their departing coach. No bet there. My handicap 10pts.
 
Cas may need to win at Saints but they themselves will want second spot. After tonight's Warrington fixture they will know their exact margin needed and that will be a factor in covering the caps on offer. If Wire go down to a shock loss then the greater motivation will be with Cas and the handicap could start to look big. I had Saints by 16pts.
 
Battling with Cas for the last play-off berth are the Crusaders and providing Saints get their expected victory then Crusaders would get the slot with a draw or better. I fully expect Crusaders to be highly motivated and win this fixture. They have been a touch unlucky in recent weeks with dubious calls at Hull and against St.Helens but I've liked what I've seen in both fixtures. Hull KR are not the greatest of travellers and with nowhere to go on the league ladder, and a more important play-off game to follow I feel they will lack intensity. I had Crusaders by 4 and it’s a back off scratch for me.
 
Hull play Leeds in the battle for fourth spot and they couldn't have picked a better time to play them. Jaded and demoralised from the Challenge Cup final, injury problems to boot with the pack looking light. Hull welcome back Sean Long and Richard Horne and they will know that they need to win this one if they are to have any realistic Grand Final ambitions. Lose this and they will know in their hearts that they don't have what it takes as all the cards are stacked in their favour. I expect the big Hull forwards to get the upper hand of their opposites and to scrape a win. Leeds cannot be completely ruled out with their superior backline but I had Hull by 2pts and I'll be looking to get with them on the exchanges.
 
Sunday's game between Salford and Wakefield is a meaningless fixture. Wakefield gave up the play-off ghost a long time ago and are in wretched form whilst Salford have never really been realistic contenders. In nothing games stats tell us that the home sides tend to have a better than expected record and it is with that knowledge that I have sided with Salford. They have a fair few players playing their last ever game for the club and I think they will prevail. I had Salford by 2-4pts.
 
A final wager for the weekend, probably the one with the lowest profile but one I like the most. The Championship One play-offs start this week and I like the look of South Wales travelling to Rochdale getting a decent handicap start. The Welsh team showed their credentials recently with a fine win at second placed Oldham and that sort of form would be more than enough here for outright victory. Rochdale are a steady enough team but tend to lose to the better teams and even threw in a shocker to lose at London Skolars. I expected the handicap to be around the scratch mark and was pleasantly surprised to see 10pts on offer. Alas, that has now been cut to 8pts but still worth a lumpy wager and I would still be playing all the way down to 4pts.
 
In the other play-off fixtures Blackpool should comfortably dispose of Workington whilst I expect Barrow to bounce back against Widnes.
 
Bets:
 
Buy Wigan supremacy 0.3pts @ 26 with Sporting Index
 
Crusaders off scratch 3pts @ 2.0 Stan James
 
Salford off scratch 2pts @ 1.91 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Coral
 
South Wales +8 3pts @ 1.91 Sky Bet, Bet365
 
The Man