Thursday Night Rugby League

By The Man

Featherstone v Halifax



9th September 19:30 GMT
Sky Sports 4 (19:30-22:30)

Featherstone entertain Halifax in the qualifying final which effectively means that the winner goes direct to the Grand Final in two weeks time whilst the loser has a second bite of the cherry, hosting the winners of Barrow and Sheffield.

Featherstone have been the most consistent side in the division and have rightfully claimed top spot. They have played a high tempo game with their big forwards gaining the yardage for their lively half backs to open up the gaps for their speedy backline, an impressive combination. However, it is their defence that has impressed me most. The fitness levels seem to be a notch above other teams and they are continually in the face of the opposition.

Halifax finished in second spot, the same as last season when the then league leaders, Barrow, blew them away. Knowing they have a second chance with home advantage means all is not lost if they fail this evening. Halifax have a few injuries especially in the hooking department with both Bob Beswick and Mark Gleeson out for the season. It's possible Ben Black; their elusive halfback could fill in for part of the game as he did recently in Toulouse. That would signal danger around the rucks with his lightening speed off the mark but the downside is that his defensive frailties may be exposed. Indeed it is the defence that is the worry throughout this Halifax team. They have little problem posting points but they never seem to grind out a victory and I feel that is what is required when you hit the play-offs.

Featherstone have already beaten Fax twice in the regular season. Firstly, something of a massacre at home by 44-4 way back at the start of April and more recently 26-16 in June at The Shay. The latter was the sort of performance the oozed quality. Once again a team was stifled by the defence and they created enough chances of their own to get the job done. Even when Fax had set after set in the red zone they were met with a brick wall and eventually ran out of ideas. Fax are probably the best attacking team in the league so that was some effort.

And so to the betting. All of the above probably leads you to believe that I'm favouring Featherstone and you are not wrong. I just feel that they will have too much for Fax on home turf. The handicaps universally have been set at 8pts, (strange how every bookmaker has the same opinion) but I feel that is just a touch on the low side. Without completely ruling out a shock win for a visitors I see a ground out victory or even a runaway win as the most likely scenario. I handicapped this game with Halifax getting 10pts start and although that is not too far away from what's on offer I turn my attention to the match odds market. The best price on offer is 1.4 at bet365, Corals and on the exchanges. In my conversion table that equates to a handicap of 6.5pts and that is a mark I would be playing at. I believe this to be a value bet as my laying price is 1.27. For those who prefer a greater reward I'm fairly certain you will be matched at odds on Halifax +8.5 on the exchanges. I had close to four figures sat there this morning laying Fax at 1.91 and it was snapped up within 20 minutes, you'd probably get away with less, as that is the best Fax handicap on offer.

I also routinely check the spread prices and I'm thinking the total points quote is a little on the high side at 55-58 with Sporting Index. I'm a believer that play-off fixtures are a lot more intense and the point scoring dries up to a degree. However, the nagging doubt is the amount of points scored in matches involving Halifax throughout the season. Their away average is in the mid sixties and I guess there is a possibility of a tryathon. I feel the safer option with the points markets is a sell of Halifax's team points. As I have stated I feel there is a possibility that Feath' could run away with things and whilst I accept the bet is not without risk I still feel a sell @ 22 has enough margin for profit
 
Picks:

Featherstone 3pts @ 1.4 with Coral
 
Sell Halifax Team Points 0.2pt @ 22 with Sporting Index
 
The Man