Thursday Night Rugby League

By The Man

Halifax v Sheffield Eagles


16th September 19:30 GMT
Sky Sports 3 (19:30-22:30)

Tonight the Championship has reached the elimination final of the play-offs. The winners get the chance to meet Featherstone in the final whilst the losers go home with nothing. Last week Halifax were put to the sword by the regular season victors whilst Sheffield recorded a fine victory at Barrow.

Halifax put up a creditable performance for sixty minutes at Featherstone before their porous defence was exposed in the latter stages. However, they showed that they are a real try scoring threat with the likes of Shad Royston and Ben Black looking dangerous throughout.

Sheffield, meanwhile were the beneficiaries of a very poor performance from Barrow who looked disjointed in attack and weren't suited to the wet conditions. To their credit Sheffield defended well, hung in there under pressure and scored a couple of late close range tries to snatch an unlikely victory.

Conditions will not be as poor in West Yorkshire this evening and I expect the danger men from Halifax to cause some damage. Sheffield haven't got enough genuine pace to match what Fax can throw at them and they are heavily reliant on their pack being dominant and the likes of Menzie Yere and Tangi Ropati being their try scoring threat. I expect the Halifax pack to at least match their counterparts and this will allow their quicker backline some decent ball in good field position. I feel that Sheffield have been a little flattered by their progress and Fax are much the stronger side. A small caveat is that Sheffield did win at Featherstone in the weekly rounds so they are capable and could win through but my expectation is that they won't.

I handicapped this one as Halifax between 8pts and 10pts and surprise, surprise every single bookmaker on the comparison websites share the same view making Sheffield 8pt dogs. Not enough discrepancy then to have a handicap bet but I'm still going to be playing on the match odds markets. 1.4 is on offer and that to me equates to a 6.5pt handicap and offers a touch of value. I'm also going to try to get Sheffield +8.5pts layed on the exchanges playing bookmaker at odds on and hope that Joe Punter likes the extra half point on offer. I can't argue with the points markets in the mid fifties, Halifax are very free scoring and won't meet a defence as strong as Featherstone's this week.
 
Pick: Halifax 3pts @ 1.4 with Bet365, Bwin or William Hill
 
In Super League's two elimination play-off games both Wigan and Warrington get to use their get of jail free cards after defeats last week and I expect them both to bounce back. Both Hull KR and Huddersfield will put up a fight but ultimately I can't see beyond two home victories. The handicaps for both these games are at a similar mark with 10-12pts and 10pts offered respectively and I can't really argue with these marks. I'll be producing prices based on these figures and let the punters make the mistakes on the exchanges.
 
Wigan Warriors squad:

Roberts, Gleeson, Carmont, Richards, S. Tomkins, Leuluai, Fielden, Riddell, Coley, Hansen, J. Tomkins, S. O'Loughlin, Prescott, McIlorum, Paleaaesina, Goulding, Farrell, Davies, Tuson.
 
Hull Kingston Rovers squad:

Briscoe, Fox, Colbon, Clinton, Cook, Cockayne, Dobson, Watts, Fisher, Galea, Hodgson, Latus, Lovegrove, Murrell, Newton, Netherton, Vella, Welham, Wheeldon.
 
Warrington and Huddersfield teams not yet named.
 
The Man