Super League Grand Final

By The Man

Wigan Warriors v St Helens



2nd October 18:00 GMT
Sky Sports 2 (17:30-20:00), Sky Sports HD2 (17:30-20:00)

Eventually we arrive at destiny and for the Super League players of Wigan and St.Helens Old Trafford has been the season long goal that they have strived for. The season started in snowy Wales in the depths of winter and this so called summer sport has spanned all four seasons. But who will win the biggest prize?

To be perfectly truthful I have no idea. Wigan, by virtue of picking up the league leader’s crown, have been the most consistent and they started the season with a bang. That was put down to an intense pre-season but to their credit they have kept momentum. That said, there have been a few blips along the way and I would argue that their end of season form wasn't quite what had been seen previously. Huddersfield, Warrington, Leeds and St.Helens themselves have all come away from the DW Stadium with close fought victories and the feeling I get is that you can withstand Wigan's opening salvo there is a fair chance of winning the game. Wigan have blown many teams away early doors but in those defeats their opponents have managed to hang in there. You could argue that Wigan were very impressive last weekend at Leeds, and they were, but I feel the loss of Danny McGuire was a telling factor as Leeds bombarded the Wigan line without any joy. Credit to the defence though for holding out and they'll need a similar effort as Saints will unleash their big guns in the shape of Tony Puletua, James Graham and Keiron Cunningham close to the Warriors tryline.

I will argue that St.Helens have timed their run perfectly. At the start of the season I expected them not to be the force of old. Sean Long, Nathan Cayless and Lee Gilmour had left the club and I couldn't envisage how well their youngsters would do. The Saints machine has kept rolling and perhaps their Challenge Cup semi final exit has done them a favour with regard to their Grand Final ambitions. For me, Saints are in the better form. In the play-offs they kept their hoodoo over Warrington and recorded a very impressive victory over Huddersfield, who I felt tested them to the limit with a fine performance. The loss of half-backs Leon Pryce and Kyle Eastmond is an obvious concern. Matty Smith will probably continue to try to direct the team around the park whilst Jon Wilkin may make the switch to stand-off.

Wigan probably have the stronger all round team. I've talked about their smothering defence before and it continues to impress me. They get numbers in there and slow down the play the ball, crucial in the modern game. Quick play the balls and Kerion Cunningham and James Roby will expose you. For Saints there is the emotion of the last ever appearance of their legend, Cunningham. Never has a player in Super League been so dominant over so long a period. I'm sure Saints will use that as motivation and perhaps destiny already has Kerion lifting the crown. However, I'm sure motivation won't be an issue to any player on the field and they will all want the victory for their own particular reasons.

And so to the betting: as I said, I haven't a clue. I can make a case for either team lifting the trophy. If anything my ever so slightest inkling was to favour Saints as I just feel they are in slightly the better form and have the big game players to win a match of this intensity. I was therefore quite surprised with the betting on offer. Saints can be backed receiving a 4pt start and I'm not really sure how Wigan can justify such favouritism. If you see a price you like then I always believe it's best to take it, hence this article being three days before game day. Victor Chandler are really spoiling me by offering the start with even money and I'm snapping that up. I fully accept that Wigan could cover but I say the price/handicap is wrong and in the long run that is what matters. Individual losses happen but as long as you can accurately price up a game and bet when the bookies differ then you'll be profitable in the long run. For the braver, I wouldn't put you off 2.38 with Blue Square to win in eighty minutes or the 2.2 with Chandler or Skybet to lift the trophy (better still with the exchanges) but I'll content myself with the handicap bet knowing I have a very good price and the insurance of a close defeat.

A further consideration should be made to the total points market. Historically these games tend to be very low scoring and I can't see why this final should be any different. The 48.5pts under/over with Pinnacle is just wrong. They have cut the price after I have had a couple of wagers and they will continue to do so as they take more money as that's the way they operate, the reason I won't go with an account bet, but I believe they should have pitched the mark around 42pts and wouldn't be at all surprised if the outcome was lower than that.
 
Pick: St.Helens +4 3pts @ 2 with VCBet

The Man