This Week's Rugby League

By The Man

Form is temporary, class is permanent. That's a saying I hope comes true with regard to my tipping. The same saying could well be appropriate for Super League, the results have been all over the place and it's beginning to feel like the NRL in terms of predicting results. However, I still feel that the basic principles of wagering remain unchanged. That is that you formulate your own tissue and wager when the layers differ sufficiently. I try to say to myself at what handicap would I be prepared to back either team and the mid-point then becomes my tissue for deriving prices for all the peripheral markets. As regular readers will know I then play bookmaker on the exchanges for every game and every market but I also wager with the bookmakers when I believe the value is there.

For this week in Super League I have a few plays:
 
Catalan Dragons v Hull FC



 16th April 18:00 GMT

Catalan have obviously had two tremendous results in defeating both Wigan and Warrington in the last fortnight. This will have boosted confidence enormously and the layers have obviously reacted to those results. However, this is still the same team that have yet to win at home and have been defeated by the likes of Harlequins and Salford. I say don't get too carried away with a couple of results.

After a wretched start Hull FC are slowly playing themselves in to a bit of form. They had a win at Harlequins, an unlucky defeat against Castleford and then a ground out victory against Bradford. If you look at their team on paper they should be a lot higher in the table than they are.

I don't see much in terms of ability between these two teams and I feel it is a game that could go either way. Hull FC, getting in excess of a converted try start has swayed me to the wager. There should be no problem getting on with all bookmakers, so far, posting the same mark so it could pay to wait a little while to see if one firm takes a chance at a higher mark. For me though I'm content at what's available. I had Catalan by 4pts.

Pick: Hull FC +8 3pts @ 1.91 v Catalan (Bet365)
 
Salford v Bradford


 
16th April 16:45 GMT

Salford have been pretty dire recently but they will fancy their chances in this one. Bradford are pretty strong at home but their away form leaves a lot to be desired. They have been competitive enough but they don't seem to do enough for victory. Their only road success was at a depleted Crusaders and then the margin was only four points. Salford were poor in the home defeat to Crusaders but before that had impressed versus Hull KR. They are a capable outfit and I would have them as only slightly inferior to the Bulls. Given that they have home advantage I would have made this a scratch game so with 6pts start they are a play.

Pick: Salford +6 3pts @ 1.83 v Bradford (Betfred)
 
Warrington Wolves v Crusaders


 
15th April 20:00 GMT

Warrington have lost their last two versus Catalan and Huddersfield and it looks like the Wigan fixture really took a lot out of both teams as their form has nosedived since. With Lee Briers returning Warrington are virtually at full strength with the only notable absentee being Matt King. Warrington are capable of running up a big score and I wouldn't rule out something similar to what they did to Harlequins with an absolute mauling. However, whilst they are capable of wide margin results on average I believe this handicap to be a touch too high. They have been very patchy recently and have tried to do too many fancy offloads before they had made the hard yards and if they fail to respect possession then they will find it hard to post points. There is rain forecast in the NW of England on Friday evening and that will not suit the expansive game that Wire play. Crusaders are capable of shipping points but if they can fix their opening periods up they can be competitive, the second period versus St.Helens showed that. With the exception of the freak Harlequins result, Warrington have not won by such a wide margin and I'm taking my chances that they won't here. I had Warrington by 20pts.

Pick: Crusaders +26 3pts @ 1.91 v Warrington (Bet365)
 
St Helens v Wakefield Trinity Wildcats


 
15th April 20:00 GMT Sky Sports HD1

Earlier in the season I had Wakefield down as the whipping boys of the league and early results and a loss of players whilst in administration suggested that. However, they have come through that period in reasonable shape. They had a confidence boosting win over Harlequins at the weekend where they showed they can post plenty of points. In other games they have been dogged in defence without really threatening a victory against the top sides. The return of Ben Jeffries has boosted them considerably and they now have a player to dictate the game. Around him they have plenty of willing youngsters who are starting to find their feet.

St.Helens are looming menacingly in the league table but it is fair to say that they haven't really fired so far this term. They are still coming to terms with unfamiliar surroundings at Widnes and their home form doesn't compare to when at Knowsley Road. They are still blooding plenty of youngsters, particularly in the key positions of half backs and youngsters do make mistakes. This one is all about the start. I fully accept that Saints are capable of covering but I feel if this game was replayed a number of times then more often that not the start would be big enough for Wakefield. I had Saints by 20pts.

Pick: Wakefield +24 3pts @ 1.91  (Ladbrokes)
 
The Man