St.Helens -6pts v Huddersfield 3pts @ 1.91 with Totesport

This is one that jumped off the page to me. Maybe the compiler is thinking that Saints will have one eye on next week's cup final but I made that mistake before the semis. The hard facts are that Saints look unbeatable at the moment. Virtually all the squad is fit and there are places up for grabs. The cup final looming is the only negative I can think for this bet but I can't see how Saints simply switch off their form. I expected a resurgent Harlequins team to push them all the way last weekend and to an extent they gave them a tough tussle yet Saints still won by 16pts. I expected a 12-14pt line for this one as it is a similar fixture. That was the line at Quins. I'm not sure why Huddersfield are rated as so far superior to them a week later. Huddersfield have put a decent run together but if we examine their run more closely they have beaten the bottom two in Cas and Hull and an up and down Wigan team. They returned to losing ways last weekend at home to Catalan and they don't appear to have the armoury to trouble Saints.
As I have said I believe that the line is wrong, the cup final can be the only explanation for the low start and I prefer to deal in hard evidence rather than to speculate that the Saints players' minds won't be right.
As an alternative the match odds at 1.44 is an equally valid play and very much a value option if you don't mind the lower odds for the extra security.
 
the man

EXTRA LATE NEWS 16:00 22/08/08

I've just got word that St.Helens are resting a few players although not wholesale changes. I expect Wellens, Meli and Wilkin to be rested and Long being taken off at half time. Obviously this affects the optimism but I still feel that the start is generous. I guess that is one of the perils of taking an early price before the squads are announced. Over the season I'm happy to do that though