St.Helens v Hull

As always with any game, be it a lowly National League fixture or a cup final, I start my analysis from a betting perspective by trying to put my own handicap to the game. From there I can make comparisons with the bookmakers and look to strike a wager if my mark is out of line. In formulating my line I often find myself asking at what price or handicap would I be willing to back either team. I am a fan of no team in Super League so I feel I always have an unbiased view. Once I have established at what handicap I would back either team the mid-point becomes my tissue. From there I can also look to place value wagers with the exchanges which I do by being a layer in the same way as the bookmakers operate.

For this fixture we have had the privilege of having the handicap lines out for a few weeks. The line was set by most bookmakers around the 12 mark and I must confess that I often found myself staring at that mark thinking it can't be right. My thoughts were nearer 18 on the form that both Saints and Hull were showing at the time and I now regret not diving in. For some reason I felt that it was a little too early to be playing with the possible prospect of injury disruptions.
Well we are now at the eve of the final and my thoughts haven't altered too much but unfortunately the handicap marks have.

The 12 soon disappeared to 14 and then up popped 16 and there is 18 in a place as I type to even money.
In the run up to the final Saints have been invincible and they have put together a record winning run. There was probably only one patchy performance against Warrington in the whole of that run but they still found the energy reserves to win in the last seconds.

There is no doubt on current form that Saints deserve to be strong favourites and they can win the game in many ways. If they need to win ugly with strong defence and basic sets they can do it. If they want to play an expansive game and run the opposition off their feet they an do it and if they have to come from behind and win in dramatic fashion they can do it.

So have Hull got a chance? Of course they have. Every team has a chance in Super League, the difference between the top and bottom isn't that great. Hull will need to get in the Saints' faces in defence. They need to ruffle them up. Saints will miss Cayless and there is a possibility that Faisavalu and Sculthorpe won't last the pace. Hull could well win the forward battle. On paper Hull should have their best team of the season out and some would argue that that team is a play-off team. The likes of Berrigan, Dykes if he plays, Yeaman, Raynor, Carvell and Manu would get in most teams and they are more than capable of mixing it with Saints. In the two fixtures this season Saints have only won close affairs and Hull would have won with the start received for this final.

So where's my money going? Nowhere with the bookies. I would probably have taken the Saints -12 if it was still available but I have revised my thinking a little and brought my handicap down to 16. If I could get a 20 start I would back Hull.

So I am playing on the exchanges and Betfair have offered a handicap at the 16.5pt mark. I've put in prices overnight of Saints 1.87 and Hull 1.83 as it is slightly above my 16pt mark. And I've been matched for my Saints wager although as I type they have drifted slightly. The markets do fluctuate and it often pays to get your money in early. If I could give one piece of advice for exchange betting above all others it would be to request a price and not take what's up unless you are 100% confident it is wrong. I decided on the prices I wanted and I'm not going to change whether I took a wager or not. If your book is around 108% which mine is then I would say that more often than not you will be accommodated in one direction or other.

So in conclusion I've no idea who will win the cup but I do know what my estimated probabilities are.
No direct advice for Priceform but you could do worse than laying either team at odds on at the exchanges handicap of 16.5.

Enjoy the game, I will.
 
the man