Halifax v Widnes
Thursday 4th September 1930

Halifax -2 3pts@1.83 with Stanjames or Betdirect

The National leagues have reached the play-off stages and it's sudden death for these two teams. Halifax finished 3rd in the table but if you discount Widnes' points deduction at the start of the season for going in to administration there would only be a point between them. They are two closely matched outfits in what could prove to be a very competitive play-off series.

These two teams met at the Shay a few weeks ago and Widnes were unlucky to come away with only a draw so you may be wondering why I am siding with Fax to cover the start in this one.
For starters Halifax were very under strength on that occasion and for seconds Widnes' away form doesn't suggest they should be vying for favouritism. Widnes have lost at Celtic (heavily), at Leigh, at Whitehaven and at Featherstone and even their away wins at the lowly Batley, Dewsbury and Sheffield have been close affairs. Halifax should be back to somewhere near full strength with both Dana Wilson and David Larder training hard and pushing for a return. Their only home defeats have come against the top two, Salford and Celtic, and I feel with home advantage they should be stronger favourites. Home ground to me is usually worth around 6pts between two equal teams but I would go a little further and make it 7pts as I feel Halifax, at full strength, have the edge. The margins I am playing to are quite small but I would have backed Fax -4pts whilst I would have taken Widnes with 10.5pts.

I'm not saying that Widnes aren't capable of winning the game but I trust my numbers and feel that Stan James have incorrectly gone out on a limb. Most of the other bookies are around the 6pt margin including the first up Totesport, who's compiler I respect. I couldn't argue too much with that assessment. An alternative would be to back the outright @1.61 and that is a valid play but I would have expected to see 1.72 for a 2pt handicap so I feel on this occasion that taking the handicap is better value.
 
the man