The Overrule Special Edition - US Open Review
By Sports Magician

Do we love the 2009 US Open or what? Two weeks of Grand Slam tennis provided followers of the Overrule with a +44.93 points profit. Add that to the +18.00 points from the French Open and +16.64 points from Wimbledon means that the Overrule has produced a +79.57 points profit over the course of six Grand Slam weeks.

Had I not been locked in a room with the Priceform hierarchy during the Australian Open negotiating my not so Albert Haynesworth-like contract, the Overrule would surely have come close to breaking the 100 points barrier for Grand Slam tennis in 2009. Fear not, the Overrule will be back in 2010 for each and every Grand Slam, aiming to at least repeat if not better this year’s success. There will be a slight change next year; preview articles will no longer be readily accessible for all, only to registered users/subscribers.

Breakdown

The Overrule had great success in the women’s event at the French Open and Wimbledon but it was the men’s event where the bulk of the profit came from at the US Open. Juan Martin del Potro was essentially the difference and played a huge role in making this US Open so profitable for us. We backed him each-way for the tournament at 15.00 and at 4.00 to win his quarter and he made good on both selections. Novak Djokovic won his quarter for us at 2.50, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga couldn’t at 5.00. Marin Cilic (2.36) and Gael Monfils (3.00) made at least the fourth round as we hoped but Tomas Berdych (3.20) was unable to do the same.

Roger Federer and Serena Williams both had little trouble negotiating their respective quarters and our five star selection on the double was proven to be completely justified at 1.76. That successful selection involving Serena was about as good as it got for the Overrule with respect to the women’s event as Jelena Jankovic (15.00), Maria Sharapova (15.00) and Victoria Azarenka (15.00) all departed the tournament far earlier than we expected.

Daily picks provided us with a +4.91 points profit.

That covers our performance over the past two weeks; you know what we do next…

MEN

Dreams can come true



The above picture is for all to enjoy, but it’s particularly for you to enjoy, Adam. I hope you frame it, or I could do it for you, son? Give me your address and I’ll have it delivered as soon as possible. I don’t want to hear another word out of you about Juan Martin del Potro (or Wow Martin as you must now always address him) until you win a set at the Maccabiah.

Now that I’ve got my personal barb out of the way it’s time to reflect on del Potro’s first Grand Slam success. Since this will be the last Overrule of 2009, I’m sure you won’t mind me indulging myself. One of the things I love as a sports fan/tipster/writer is to ‘discover’ talent at an early age, assess what that team or player has the capability to achieve and then hopefully (and thus profit) watch on as that talent is harnessed, developed and eventually comes to fruition. You can’t always get it right, these things are not an exact science and my hopes for Nicole Vaidisova many moons ago is evidence of what can go wrong – in her case, Radek Stepanek. Try sleeping with Radek and see if you are ever the same again, poor Nicole, the nightmares she must have.

I first became aware of the ‘next big thing of Argentine tennis’ in 2005, apparently this future superstar was going to become what previous favourites of mine – Guillermo Coria and David Nalbandian – were and had not become, Grand Slam champions. After reading up on what information was out there about his game and style as well as seeing the odd clip here or there, my first chance to assess his qualities up close and personal was at the Copa Telmex in Buenos Aires in February 2006. There he was drawn against Juan Carlos Ferrero, a former French Open champion and world number one. Del Potro was raw, as you might expect at that age, and it was obvious to see why an opponent on the challenger circuit had labelled him a ‘Kamikaze’ – hence the nickname – for his brand of tennis.

Whether it was a winner or unforced error off either wing, it was del Potro who largely dictated the encounter. Ultimately Ferrero’s experience won the day as he prevailed in a deciding set but it was clear to me that what had been written and said about del Potro’s potential was true. There was much to improve on but the raw materials were there and I genuinely thought that Argentina now had a player who might legitimately be a future world number one and multiple Slam winner. As opposed to Coria, who despite his brilliance was always liable to be overpowered away from clay. And Nalbandian, whose brilliance was effortless, so effortless in fact that he could never be a world number one with that lack of week in and week out application.

Sometimes you see something and you just know and that day was one of those moments. I’ve spent a fair part of the past three years trying to convince those I converse with in person and online that del Potro is the real deal, today I need not convince anyone. The proof is in the picture above. Del Potro ended 2006 in the top 100, but in 2007 he was to receive the wakeup call that there was a lot more hard work required if he was to make any impact whatsoever at the elite level of the game. He went 1-9 against players in the top 10, his biggest win of the year coming against Tommy Robredo (the then world number 9) in Madrid.

One of the main differences that becomes apparent when a young player on his way up faces off against the current world’s best is that of fitness and conditioning. Against Fernando Gonzalez at the 2007 Australian Open, del Potro was forced to retire in the fifth set, not purely to fatigue, but as we know fatigue increases the risk of injury and tennis is an unforgiving sport to play in such circumstances. In a team sport a player may be able to hide an injury and have others take up the slack to compensate, in tennis you’re on your own and fully exposed, when not at your best the top players will expose that ruthlessly (see del Potro’s demolition of a less than 100% Rafael Nadal at this year’s US Open).

Del Potro succumbed to Nadal (French Open), Roger Federer (Wimbledon) and Novak Djokovic (US Open) in the remaining three slams of that year, failing to take a set in any of those matches, although he came close in the first set against Nadal.

The first few months of 2008 were difficult for del Potro, once again he was forced to retire at the Australian Open, this time against David Ferrer. He missed two months of the season and then sat out a further month after the Rome Masters (where he retired against Andy Murray in a match where the two exchanged words, namely about Judy Murray, who to this day is ‘always the same’). He was able to return in time for Roland Garros but suffered an early exit (second round) against Simone Bolelli and then suffered the same fate at Wimbledon against Stanislas Wawrinka.

It appeared that del Potro was not progressing at the rate expected, in fact his serve had not become the weapon it should have standing at 6’6. And then it clicked. Under the tutelage of Franco Davin (who helped Gaston Gaudio win the 2004 French Open, the Grand Slam title that was seemingly destined for Coria) since early 2008, del Potro’s new coach emphasised the need for a greater level of conditioning. Despite the work being put in off the court, the results had not yet materialised and the serve still looked inconsistent. Then the hard work started to pay off and four successive titles later – Stuttgart, Kitzbuhel (both clay), Los Angeles and Washington (both hard) – del Potro once again experienced the spurt in his progress and ranking that he had over the course of 2006.

His 23 match winning streak was ended by Murray at the quarter-final stage of the US Open; he broke down in the post-match press conference claiming he felt he had “let everyone down”. He hadn’t. He was reduced to tears at this year’s US Open, too. Although this time around there was a happy ending.

2008 ended with mixed feelings, del Potro qualified for the Masters Cup for the first time in his career, and despite a toe injury he played in the event. A decision which prompted criticism from some sections of the Argentine media and fans for going to Shanghai rather than focusing fully on the upcoming Davis Cup final against Spain. Del Potro picked up an injury (a new and unrelated one to the toe) in the second rubber against Feliciano Lopez, that was the first and last time he was on court in that tie. With del Potro unable to play in the fourth rubber and Nalbandian forced to sit and watch while his Argentinean team mates once again failed to deliver a single point that he did not provide in a Davis Cup final, Argentina’s Davis Cup hopes went up in flames. 1/6 favourites to win the Davis Cup before the weekend, Argentinean fans had to leave the champagne on ice as a Nadal-less Spain celebrated Argentina’s first Davis Cup home defeat in ten years.

And so to the current year, Federer gave del Potro a lesson as he mercilessly crushed the Argentine at the Australian Open. Del Potro reached the last eight but he made no impact whatsoever once he got there. One of del Potro’s key breakthrough victories would come against Nadal in Miami. Here he would beat the Spaniard for the first time and although Federer represents the toughest challenge on tour from a technical aspect, Nadal embodies the toughest challenge from a mental aspect – and del Potro proved his mental strength had improved enough to contend at this level.

It was Federer again for del Potro, but this time at the French Open, and on this occasion there was a contest. Del Potro was the better player for the first three sets, but failed to win the second of those and was ousted by what was the then 13 time Grand Slam champion in five sets. Still very green (no pun intended) on grass, del Potro lost to one of his idols, Lleyton Hewitt at Wimbledon. That brings us to the past six weeks where del Potro defended his Washington title, beating Andy Roddick in the final. He went on to reach his first Masters Series final in Montreal off the back of that, but ran out of gas against Murray in the final. Del Potro made the wise decision of skipping Cincinnati and arrived in New York fresh and with matches under his belt, and significantly, a lot of confidence.

The rest as they say is history. Del Potro becomes the first player on tour to beat Nadal and Federer in the same slam, and he did it on back to back days. The first time slam finalist beat a man who has 15 Slams to his name along with the tag of greatest player in the history of the game (that argument still rages on in some quarters, but its case closed in my eyes). Del Potro becomes the first non-European player to taste Grand Slam success since Gaudio in 2004.

I feel like this momentous occasion deserves some music, so here’s Florence and the Machine. The song won’t mean much to many of you in relation to the US Open, but it will to Linda and Chris, and for me, that’s enough. Always the same those two, always the same. 




41-1



It’s been two of everything for Roger Federer this year, two slam titles, two slam runner-up places and two daughters. You have to question the names he and Mirka chose for their new arrivals, as well as why Federer allowed himself to get so rattled against del Potro? The fifth set was reminiscent of the Australian Open where Nadal saw the finish line and stormed on while Federer failed to react to the challenge in a positive fashion. Still, the guy has 15 Slam titles to his name, it’s hard to criticise him. Although it was nice to see some of the old Federer back on the court, the one who acted like a problem child when things didn’t go his way. If you’re new to tennis (as in the past few years) it may come as a shock to you that Federer used to exhibit petulant behaviour on a regular basis. Anyway, here was his effort from Monday night.



There isn’t much to motivate Federer for the rest of the season, I’m not sure a man who has reached the status he now has in the game can be particularly hungry for success in the remaining two Masters Series events in Shanghai and Paris. That’s not to say Federer won’t win one or both events, but the season is practically over for him now that the majors are pretty much all he lives for. The Masters Cup – to be held in London – takes place at the end of November and Federer will be hoping to go beyond the group stage, something he failed to achieve last year.

Out of action



Rafael Nadal missed Wimbledon due to a knee injury and a new injury affected his performance at the US Open. The former number one (that didn’t last long, did it?) did relatively well to reach the last four in New York for the second consecutive year despite struggling with an abdominal injury that has caused him to pull out of Spain’s Davis Cup semi-final against Israel. The Spaniard who looked set to dominate most of the year after winning the Australian Open has lamented his bad luck with injuries in 2009. The injury meant Nadal’s serve was hugely ineffective against del Potro, especially considering the form of the Argentine who was ripping winners from all over the court. The objective for Nadal now is surely to ensure he is healthy enough to compete at the Masters Cup and a potential Davis Cup final. Scheduling will be key for Nadal in 2010, if he and his team don’t get on top of that, he will continue to have problems.

Feeling blue? Take a cruise (with Jelena Ristic)



Novak Djokovic showed signs of the player who won the Australian Open in 2008 over the course of the past two weeks. The smile seems to have returned to his game and he even put a smile on the face of the crowd (who weren’t too happy with him last year) when he had a late night hit with John McEnroe. The whole thing was “spontaneous”, allegedly, although personally when the name McEnroe is involved I just think “orchestrated”. In case you missed it; here’s spontaneity at its finest.



Djokovic’s tournament was ended by Federer, the third year in a row that has happened. Their semi-final was a high quality clash and a straight sets defeat was harsh on the Serbian.

“I can’t tell you, because I don’t know the answer”



Those were the words of Fernando Gonzalez after his rain delayed quarter-final with Nadal ended up with him swallowing a third set bagel, having failed to win a single point in the second set tie-break upon resumption. Gonzalez has been fairly consistent in Slams this year and sitting just outside the top 10 will be hoping to push on in the last months of the season in pursuit of a Masters Cup spot.

Minor breakthrough



We’ve been waiting for Marin Cilic to do something of note in a major event and the Croatian produced an impressive display to take out Murray in straight sets. Cilic put in the kind of performance we all know he is capable of, but at present he is still far too erratic to put it together consistently. The next twelve months will tell us whether Cilic is going to take the steps up in future that are necessary to become a threat in slams for more than just the odd match.

Cilic still has much to play for this year, he is in the mix for a spot at the Masters Cup and he will lead Croatia in Davis Cup semi-final action against the Czechs. It hasn’t been long since the combination of Ivan Ljubicic and Mario Ancic brought Croatia a Davis Cup title and now Cilic and Ivo Karlovic are hoping to replicate that success.

The window doesn’t stay open forever



The picture above is taken from this year’s US Open, as all the pictures have been, although you can’t see the court. That’s because Andy Murray is standing anywhere between a few feet and a few miles behind it, defending for his life. That passive attitude has been Murray’s undoing in all four slams this year in defeats to Fernando Verdasco, Gonzalez, Andy Roddick and Cilic.

If Murray continues with this tactic, he might be lucky enough during a slam for all the big hitters to miss and the Scot can claim a slam by virtue of his opponents imploding. However, the past year has surely provided enough evidence to suggest that it’s long overdue that the supposed master tactician that Murray is, needs to modify his game plan.

Until he makes a change, expect more “unexpected” defeats for Murray in majors as his opponents take the initiative and grasp the match by the scruff of the neck.

Americana



If you weren’t paying attention you’d have thought no American men had entered the tournament. They were all gone by the time the fourth round was completed. The highlight for American fans turned out to be the five set third round battle between big serving John Isner and former US Open champion Andy Roddick. Isner got the better of Roddick in a fifth set tie-break, before Verdasco ended American interest in the men’s event in the following round.

WOMEN

Mothers do it better



When Kim Clijsters announced her return to the WTA tour I can’t say I expected her to win the second Grand Slam of her career in her first slam and only third tournament back. However, that’s because I had no idea that Clijsters could hit the ground running in the way she did and quite frankly looked better than she did when she became world number one and won the 2005 US Open.

It’s strange to read that, isn’t it? It’s even stranger to type it; Clijsters is a better player now than when she left the tour. She is hitting bigger and cleaner and her movement which was always good is as good as it ever was. All you can do is tip your cap to her and congratulate her on a truly remarkable comeback. Some may want to look on the negative side and wonder what it says about the women’s tour that something like this can happen, but to do so would be down playing the fact that Clijsters was just awesome.

How much does she have left to give and how much longer will she be willing to give it? Watch this space, I guess.

Danish delight



After Wimbledon I seriously questioned whether Caroline Wozniacki was going to simply be a consistent performer on the regular tour while continually under performing in slams. It took her only a few months to force me to withdraw that scepticism. It’s true that ‘Caro’ was the beneficiary of pure carnage in the top half of the women’s draw, but that’s not her concern. She didn’t fall, while others around her did and showed great character to take out Svetlana Kuznetsova when she was being largely outplayed.

I’ve seen few people mention this during the tournament, but Wozniacki actually played three weeks in a row! In my eyes it’s pure lunacy for a player with ambitions and expectations to do well in a slam to play in the week immediately leading up to the event. Caro did by winning New Haven and still made the US Open final, so clearly it worked for her and good luck to her for it.

The confidence gained from reaching her first slam final should help elevate Wozniacki’s level further and this may be the springboard for her to become a consistent and genuine slam threat. I’d still pull the reigns in on that trail of thought, but time will tell.

Say what?



Serena Williams made headlines for the wrong reasons as she violated her way out of the US Open. A highly debateable foot fault led to Serena confronting a lineswoman and we all know what happened soon after. After stopping short of apologising in the immediate aftermath of the incident, Serena has since issued a full and frank apology for her actions and was handed the maximum fine by the USTA that their sanctions allow. The money is nothing more than pocket change for Serena, but that’s almost beside the point.

It was a poor way for a player of her standing to exit the tournament and you can almost be certain it will never happen again. And not just to her, but to anyone, at least in a Grand Slam event. Ever since Serena laughed at the fact Dinara Safina sits on top of the rankings, she hasn’t won a tournament. Serena, just to let you know, that’s why you’re not number one, consistency.

I’m here too you know?



Poor Yanina Wickmayer, she reaches her first Grand Slam semi-final and doesn’t receive the honour of playing that match on Arthur Ashe. The rain made that a necessity but it’s the US Open scheduling in general which leaves a lot to be desired and is the real problem in such instances. We opposed Wickmayer twice but she saw off both Virginie Razzano and Sara Errani in straight sets.

America’s sweetheart



The US Open crowd fell in love with 17 year old Melanie Oudin as her impressive run took her all the way to the last eight. Oudin proved to be a real Russian slayer (which would have delighted Boylesports since they offered a money back special should a Russian win the women’s event) ousting Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Elena Dementieva, Maria Sharapova and Nadia Petrova.

Oudin’s spirit and fight was reminiscent of Lleyton Hewitt, and to be honest, she kind of got to me. It was always going to be hard for me to warm to her after she knocked out our last standing women’s selection in the form of Sharapova. However, she more than deserved her victories, just don’t expect her to have the success on the women’s tour that Hewitt once had on the men’s.

Slippery slope



Dinara Safina was bounced off Arthur Ashe in another fine US Open scheduling fiasco and was then bounced out of the tournament altogether by Petra Kvitova in a deciding set tie-break. Safina has been remarkably consistent for the past 18 months and on the Overrule we’ve defended her position as world number one whilst also acknowledging we doubt she will claim that elusive slam.

Things are starting to unravel for Safina at the moment and she needs to rediscover the hunger and drive which got her to number one to begin with. It’s plain to see how unhappy she is with herself these days and naturally that negativity is seeping through to her game more and more.

Serving issues



Maria has been back on tour long enough now for us to analyse her game with a degree of certainty. The serve is still a problem, it had become a problem as her shoulder issues became apparent, and is still a problem despite changes made to alleviate the situation. 21 double faults are the real reason Sharapova lost to Oudin and it’s hard for us to have confidence in Maria going forward until we see some drastic improvements in this critical area of her game.

The fight and determination is still there, more than ever in fact. Sharapova’s will to win is quite extraordinary, I couldn’t respect her more in that sense. However, no matter all the will in the world, if you keep giving opponents free points it will catch up with you sooner or later.

Flavia on fire



Thought it was well worth mentioning the form of Flavia Pennetta who has had an excellent few weeks. Winning in Los Angeles as well as a semi-final spot in Cincinnati and then reaching the last eight at the US Open before falling to Serena Williams in straight sets. Pennetta produced one of the performances of the tournament when she destroyed Sania Mirza in a mere 47 minutes 6-0, 6-0.

Early victims



Elena Dementieva came into the US Open looking good and with the potential for a busy two weeks but instead she was out as early as the second round. As mentioned, her conqueror was Oudin, and deprived us of the much anticipated Dementieva-Sharapova third round meeting.



Victoria Azarenka once again allowed her frustrations and emotions to aid her exit from a tournament along with the savvy play of Francesca Schiavone. After brushing past her first two opponents, Azarenka came unstuck against the Italian in what proved to be a very disappointing display from her. Despite her continued emotional frailties, I’m still expecting something big from Azarenka in 2010.



That has become the familiar Jelena Jankovic pose, when she starts to do that we know it’s a bad day at the office for her. Jankovic’s second round defeat wasn’t the worst thing to happen to Jelena that week, as family matters became the greater priority that they are. The Overrule wishes Jelena the best for now and the future, on and off the court.

Don’t mess with my sister



The picture you see above is that of Gisela Dulko during a 6-0, 6-0 caning courtesy of Kateryna Bondarenko. Dulko had earlier defeated Kateryna’s sister and doubles partner, Alona, 6-4, 6-0. The truth is Dulko was more awful than Kateryna was great, but still, a double bagel is rare in a slam (although we already noted Pennetta’s result against Mirza).

Below is a picture of Gisela in happier times, she’s not actually smiling in the picture, but that’s really not the point.



That concludes the Overrule review of the 2009 US Open. I hope you were able to profit from the tournament as we were and I look forward to us doing it all again in 2010 – beginning with the Australian Open. For the remainder of the year Sports Magician will be all about football, football and football in the form of the Golden Nuggets, so make sure you take advantage each and every week from the selections on offer.