The Golden Nuggets - Extra

By Sports Magician

'TRAPDOOR POINTS' PREMIER LEAGUE SPECIAL

Sporting Index are offering a Premier League Special on the cumulative points gained by the three sides who will be relegated this season. The sell point is at 87 and the buy at 89. The Golden Nuggets believe that the top end figure is unjustifiably optimistic and provides us with an opportunity to sell the points for a high potential gain at a low potential loss. In order to assess what is a realistic points total for the bottom three sides, the easiest thing for us to do is to first analyse the two sides that look doomed.

PORTSMOUTH (CURRENT POINTS TOTAL 22 *NOT INCLUDING NINE POINT DEDUCTION FOR ADMINSTRATION* - REMAINING GAMES 6)
HOME: BLACKBURN, ASTON VILLA & WOLVES
AWAY: WIGAN, BOLTON & EVERTON

Portsmouth are relegated in all but name after their nine point deduction for going into administration was recently ratified. Avram Grant’s side continue to play with spirit and have an FA Cup semi-final to concentrate on and look forward to. Pompey might be able to muster a couple of wins from their remaining games, but not much more than that.

BURNLEY (CURRENT POINTS TOTAL 24 - REMAINING GAMES 6)
HOME: MANCHESTER CITY, LIVERPOOL & TOTTENHAM
AWAY: HULL, SUNDERLAND & BIRMINGHAM

Where are Burnley going to pick up points? Their home form has been their only salvation this season, but they have won only one of their last ten matches at Turf Moor, and their remaining three home games are against sides that are still fighting for fourth spot. Away from home, Burnley have picked up one point all season! Let’s be generous and predict that Burnley will pick up three points from their last six games, although that is easily debateable.

In my estimation, Portsmouth and Burnley will go down with a combined points total of around 50 points. If my projections are near the mark, the last remaining relegated team would need to hit 37 points to reach the 87 points sell line, so let’s take a look at the three most likely contenders to fill that last remaining relegation spot.

HULL (CURRENT POINTS TOTAL 27 - REMAINING GAMES 7)
HOME: BURNLEY, ASTON VILLA, SUNDERLAND & LIVERPOOL
AWAY: STOKE, BIRMINGHAM & WIGAN

Hull placed Phil Brown on gardening leave and replaced him with Iain Dowie, since that time the Tigers threw away three points at Portsmouth and defeated Fulham at home. On paper you could make a case for Hull being able to take something from all of their remaining games apart from their last fixture at home to Liverpool. I can envisage Hull reaching around 37 points that would give them a great chance of survival.

WEST HAM (CURRENT POINTS TOTAL 27 - REMAINING GAMES 6)
HOME: SUNDERLAND, WIGAN & MANCHESTER CITY
AWAY: EVERTON, LIVERPOOL & FULHAM

Gianfranco Zola is convinced he can steer West Ham to safety, but it’s looking precarious to say the least. I’ve awarded them six points from their remaining home games, but if their recent home defeats to Stoke and Wolves are anything to go by, that is being generous. On the road their only realistic chance of a victory might come at Craven Cottage, because anything more than a point from their trips to Merseyside will be a surprise. My projections have West Ham around the 34 point mark, which the Hammers would be very fortunate to survive on.

WIGAN (CURRENT POINTS TOTAL 31 - REMAINING GAMES 6)
HOME: PORTSMOUTH, ARSENAL & HULL
AWAY: FULHAM, WEST HAM & CHELSEA

Roberto Martinez’s side most likely only need around four or five points to ensure their safety, if my previous calculations are near the mark. Fixtures against Portsmouth, Hull and West Ham will be pivotal in pursuit of those points. I’m not convinced Wigan will come by those points easily, but a tally of around 34-37 points could be achievable.

In conclusion, at the present rate, my bottom three will look something like this…

18 West Ham 33-34 points
19 Burnley 24-25 points
20 Portsmouth 24-25 points

At the top end, I estimate around the 84 points mark for the sides that go down.

PICK: 3*SELL TOTAL “TRAPDOOR” (COMBINED POINTS TOTAL OF THE THREE RELEGATED PREMIER LEAGUE TEAMS) POINTS @ 87 (SPORTING INDEX) - NO STOP LOSS

SETTLEMENT CONFIRMATION

-FOR EVERY POINT UNDER 87 THAT THE COMBINED RELEGATED TEAMS OBTAIN, WE WIN 3 POINTS. (EXAMPLE: A TOTAL OF 85 POINTS WOULD MEAN A 6.00 POINTS GAIN FOR THE GOLDEN NUGGETS)

-FOR EVERY POINT OVER 87 THAT THE COMBINED RELEGATED TEAMS OBTAIN, WE LOSE 3.00 POINTS. (EXAMPLE: A TOTAL OF 89 POINTS WOULD MEAN A 6.00 POINTS LOSS FOR THE GOLDEN NUGGETS)

Sports Magician