The Overrule: ATP Rome

By Sports Magician

Masters Series action returns in Rome where we find a top heavy draw featuring Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Nadal took a break last week by sensibly deciding to skip Barcelona, while Federer makes his first appearance on clay this season. Nadal has won in Rome for four of the past five years and I see no reason not to place maximum confidence in him once again after his demolition job on the tour during Monte Carlo. Fernando Verdasco has had a great couple of weeks on the dirt, winning Barcelona and reaching the final in Monte Carlo. However, three weeks of continuous action means we will shy away from backing him in the each-way market. In fact, with a tiring David Ferrer and out of form Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, it’s hard to place much confidence for one reason or another in any particular player in the bottom half of the draw.

In the match betting market in first round action the Overrule is keen on Horacio Zeballos and an overpriced Marcos Baghdatis. Zeballos faces American John Isner, who has greatly improved over the past couple of years, but still struggles with his movement which can be easily exposed on clay. Baghdatis is 4-0 against Ernests Gulbis although the two have never met on clay. It’s hard to justify Gulbis being such a short price when he is still developing and has yet to prove his consistency, especially against players with the talent of Baghdatis.

PICK: 5*RAFAEL NADAL WIN ROME @ 1.57 (BETFRFED)

PICK: 4*HORACIO ZEBALLOS BEAT JOHN ISNER @ 1.8 (BOYLESPORTS)

PICK: 2*MARCOS BAGHDATIS BEAT ERNESTS GULBIS @ 2.62 (BET 365)

Sports Magician