SPECIAL EDITION: THE GOLDEN NUGGETS - World Cup 2010

By Sports Magician

PARAGUAY TOP SCORER

Paraguay will be without the man who top scored for them during qualification, Salvador Cabanas. As I mentioned in an earlier World Cup article, Cabanas was shot in the head in January of this year and is forced to miss the World Cup, but has fortunately made great strides in his recovery. Nelson Haedo Valdez scored five goals during qualification, one behind Cabanas, and he has been priced up far too big by BWIN. Some bookies have Valdez as short as 2.50 to top score for Paraguay, and although that price may be considered a little stingy, the one we will capitalise on certainly cannot. Dead heat rules apply.

PICK: 1.5*NELSON HAEDO VALDEZ TO BE TOP PARAGUAY SCORER @ 7.0 (BWIN)


GROUP C STRAIGHT FORECAST

England have been afforded arguably the easiest group of all the top seeds for the 2010 World Cup. Fabio Capello’s side were efficient and impressive during qualification and should continue that vein of form and results in Group C, where the Americans represent their greatest threat. The USA reached the Confederations Cup final last year, beating Spain and leading Brazil in the final, despite not having anywhere near the quality of those two sides. There is nothing extraordinary about the Americans; they are technically sound, hard working and athletic. Slovenia and Algeria don’t have enough about them to stop the Americans joining England in the knockout phase. Our selection is a straight forecast on England to win the group with the USA finishing second.

PICK: 5*(GROUP C STRAIGHT FORECAST) ENGLAND 1ST / USA 2ND @ 2.88 (BET365)


BRAZIL v NORTH KOREA (TUESDAY JUNE 15TH 19.30 GMT)

We have already backed markets concerning this match in part one of the Golden Nuggets group phase articles and now we have further opportunities to take advantage of. Brazil are a mightily strong opponent for North Korea to match up with to begin the tournament and there is value in Dunga’s side opening the scoring early. The Golden Nuggets will back Brazil to lead after 15 and also 30 minutes. North Korea won’t be able to threaten Brazil much, if at all, while Kaka and co. will be consistently probing and opening up the North Korean defence. It will just be a matter of time as to when Brazil opens the scoring and they will be hungry to start the tournament fast and take advantage of such inferior opposition.

PICK: 5*BRAZIL TO LEAD AFTER 30 MINUTES @ 1.75 (William Hill)

PICK: 3.75*BRAZIL TO LEAD AFTER 15 MINUTES @ 3.10 (William Hill)


GOALSCORER MATCH BET - MIROSLAV KLOSE v ALBERTO GILARDINO

Germany are still reeling from the loss of captain Michael Ballack as Miroslav Klose will hope to continue the World Cup form he showed in 2006 and 2002. The fact is; Klose is not what he was and may not even be guaranteed of a regular start for a German side that loses much of its attacking threat through the loss of Ballack. Alberto Gilardino is expected to lead the line for the Italians and has a juicy meeting with New Zealand awaiting him where he will expect to find the net. Italy have a relatively comfortable early passage which may see them land in the last eight at worst, while I’m not at all convinced Germany can even get that far at their best. Skybet rules on Goalscorer match bets dictate that a draw is no bet and both players must play some part in the tournament for bets to stand.

PICK: 4*ALBERTO GILARDINO TO SCORE MORE GOALS THAN MIROSLAV KLOSE (DRAW NO BET) @ 1.91 (SKY BET)


FASTEST GOAL OF THE TOURNAMENT

Extrabet are offering a buy line of 97 seconds for the fastest goal of the tournament. This is one of the more interesting spread markets in my eyes and one which I have been researching extensively over recent days. The sample size of 64 World Cup matches has been in existence since the 1998 tournament in France and the fastest goals have been as follows -

2006 - ASAMOAH GYAN (GHANA) v CZECH REPUBLIC 69 SECONDS



2002 - HAKAN SUKUR (TURKEY) v SOUTH KOREA 11 SECONDS



1998 - CELSO AYALA (PARAGUAY) v NIGERIA 52 SECONDS



So why is it that the Golden Nuggets consider buying the 97 seconds is the way to go when the fastest goal in a 64 match World Cup has, to date, always gone under? World Cup matches are invariably cautious affairs to begin with as sides try not to give too much away early (not that anyone in the South Korea defence took that to heart in 2002!). Even in matches involving sides in which the quality difference between the two is vast, there is no guarantee that a superior side can exert their dominance so early in a game. The late, great Brian Clough once said ‘it only takes a second to score a goal’ and that is true. However, how long can it take to set up a free kick? For the referee to get the wall back after players protest the decision? For a player to receive treatment? There are many factors, which can stall and delay the game, and these would all be in our favour.

My assessment would be to expect the fastest goal to come between two and four minutes, although being perfectly aware a goal may be scored at anytime. This is not an exact science, but the variables are in our favour for the most part.

PICK: 0.1*BUY TIME OF FASTEST GOAL AT WORLD CUP @ 97 SECONDS (Extrabet)

REALISTICALLY TRYING TO DETERMINE WHAT MAY BE OUR MAXIMUM EXPOSURE ON SUCH A SELECTION CAN BE QUANITIFIED AS SUCH - A GOAL SCORED FROM THE HALF-WAY LINE AS SOON AS THE GAME KICKS OFF MAY TAKE ANYWHERE FROM 3-4 SECONDS. LET US SAY THE FASTEST GOAL OCCURS AFTER 4 SECONDS, THIS WOULD GIVE US A LOSS OF 9.3 POINTS, WORKED OUT AS FOLLOWS. 97 SECONDS BUY LINE, MINUS 4 SECONDS FASTEST GOAL, EQUALS 93, MULTIPLIED BY 0.1, EQUALS -9.3PTS.

Sports Magician