The Overrule

By Sports Magician

French Open Review, ATP Queen's/Halle, WTA Birmingham & an Early Look at Wimbledon

The French Open proved to be a disappointing showing for the Overrule as we ended the tournament -30.15pts, with an ROI of -27.16. The Grand Slams have not been kind to us in 2010 thus far, but in a couple of weeks Wimbledon provides a chance for us to reverse those fortunes and show the kind of form the Overrule exhibited during the 2009 Grand Slam events. On the court, congratulations go to Rafael Nadal and Francesca Schiavone. Nadal, as expected, reclaimed the title he lost last year and his reaction to winning his fifth French Open title clearly showed that winning never gets boring or means any less as each year passes. The men’s draw lost some of its fizz through the absence of Juan Martin del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko, who both would have been likely to reach the latter stages. In the women’s draw, Schiavone was a revelation, and if you picked her to win the tournament from the outset, then many, many congratulations for doing so. The big three - Justine Henin, Serena Williams and Jelena Jankovic were all taken out by Sam Stosur, who must be disappointed to have disposed of three world number ones in succession, only to fall at the last hurdle.

All eyes now turn to grass, as the Overrule takes a look at the first week of action in preparation for Wimbledon. We’ve also got an early selection for this year’s tournament at SW19.

ATP QUEEN’S

Andy Murray has had a longer grass court preparation than he would have hoped for after being knocked out in the fourth round at the French Open. The defending champion has been given a testing section of the draw with Marin Cilic and Nadal both in his half. Nadal has been made favourite for the tournament, and although he has gone straight from winning the French Open to Queen’s before, in 2008, it is very difficult to transition from clay to grass with such limited preparation. Cilic offers great each-way value in the top half of the draw.

Andy Roddick has won the event four times and will be eager to begin his grass court season after struggling with injury for much of the past few months. Roddick hadn’t played since winning Miami when he returned for the French Open and the American will be delighted to get back on a surface he has excelled on in past years. Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils all reside in the bottom half of the draw, but Roddick can justify his status as one of the elite players on grass by making it through to another Queen’s final.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) MARIN CILIC WIN QUEEN’S (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 17.00 (SKY BET)

PICK: 3*ANDY RODDICK WIN QUEEN’S @ 3.75 (SKY BET)

ATP HALLE

Roger Federer returns to Germany in search of his sixth title at Halle and has had a longer preparation than usual having been knocked out of the French Open at the quarter-final stage. Federer has only won one tournament this season (Australian Open) and so the Overrule will shy away from backing the now world number two at odds-on. In previous years, odds of 1.50 would have appealed on Federer to win Halle, and although on paper he should win the event again this year, we’ve been stung by Federer in Estoril this season, so will wait for him to show us some form in the lesser events before we trust him again.

Lleyton Hewitt has decided to play Halle for the first time in his career; having played at Queen’s every year since 1999. The strength of this year’s Queen’s draw most likely had a bearing on Hewitt deciding to commit to Halle rather than his usual grass court preparation. It may well prove to be a wise decision as his draw is certainly negotiable and he avoids Federer’s half of the draw. We’ll back Hewitt to win the tournament, opting not to back him each-way at 1/3 odds and we’ll reassess our position should the Aussie still be standing in the latter stages.

PICK: 2*LLEYTON HEWITT WIN HALLE @ 15.00 (BETFAIR)

WTA BIRMINGHAM

Maria Sharapova had a surprisingly good clay court season, winning against a relatively weak field in Strasbourg and then giving Henin all she could handle at the French Open. Sharapova became the first player to take a set off Henin at Roland Garros since 2005, to our cost, and softened the Belgian up for her exit to Stosur in the following round. Another relatively weak field stands in Sharapova’s way in Birmingham, and if she continues to serve as she has for the past few weeks, the Russian can claim her third title of the 2010 season.

PICK: 4*MARIA SHARAPOVA WIN BIRMINGHAM @ 2.2 (BETFAIR)

WIMBLEDON

Maria Sharapova is currently available at 9.0 to win this year’s Wimbledon and I can’t see that price surviving by the time the tournament begins. If Sharapova is successful in Birmingham, her price will be set to drop further and more in line with most other bookmakers who have her priced up between 7.00 and 8.00. The Overrule will be making an early selection for Wimbledon by backing ‘Masha’ in the each-way market.

PICK: 2.5*(EACH-WAY) MARIA SHARAPOVA WIN WIMBLEDON (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 9.0 (BETFRED)

Sports Magician