Special Edition: The Golden Nuggets - World Cup 2010 (Group Phase Part 3 & General)

By Sports Magician

Welcome to the third edition of the Golden Nuggets group phase articles which will also incorporate our final selections for the tournament in general. The Golden Nuggets will be back at the end of the group phase to assess our mid-tournament performance, and look ahead to the knock-out stages.

OPENING WEEK BANKERS

Now that we’ve had a chance to assess the preparations of various teams in the tournament, the Golden Nuggets can look to stack up the value during the opening week of the competition. Argentina have refrained from playing too close to the competition and in a strange way that has been a blessing. While other teams have either lost or are fretting over the fitness of various players who have picked up injuries, Argentina have been working away, quietly. Their opening opponents, Nigeria, have lost the services of Jon Obi Mikel, who plays a far more progressive role for the Super Eagles than he does for Chelsea. His absence is a major blow and Argentina should begin the competition on the right foot. Slovakia, led by the brilliant Marik Hamsik, should be able to dispose of New Zealand - who shocked an experimental Serbia in the warm-up games. Spain and Chile have been tipped up as the straight forecast combination likely to emerge from Group H, and both sides should begin the competition with a win against Switzerland and Honduras, respectively.

PICK: 3*(FOUR-FOLD) ARGENTINA BEAT NIGERIA (1.50), SLOVAKIA BEAT NEW ZEALAND (1.44), SPAIN BEAT SWITZERLAND (1.33) & CHILE BEAT HONDURAS (1.62) @ 4.65 (BOYLESPORTS)

FINAL GROUP GAMES

There is little doubt in my mind that by the time these respective matches are played the prices will have shortened in the relevant markets. Argentina are likely to have already qualified by the time they meet Greece and although that may mean some key players will be rested, you only have to look at the strength in depth of Argentina’s attack to know that the ammunition at their disposal will be too much for Greece to handle. Paraguay should coast past New Zealand, who may well prove to be the whipping boys of this year’s World Cup. Ivory Coast have been given a fright thanks to Didier Drogba’s arm/elbow injury, but the expectation is that the Chelsea forward will play a part in the competition, although clearly there is a race against time for him to be fit for the Ivorian’s opening match against Portugal.

PICK: 4*ARGENTINA BEAT GREECE @ 1.67 (BLUE SQUARE)

PICK: 5*PARAGUAY BEAT NEW ZEALAND @ 1.40 (SKY BET)

PICK: 3*PARAGUAY BEAT NEW ZEALAND HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME @ 1.91 (BWIN)

PICK: 4*IVORY COAST BEAT NORTH KOREA HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME @ 1.95 (BWIN)

OUTRIGHT

The World Cup has never been won by a European team outside of Europe and although Spain are rightful favourites going into the event, I don’t expect that fact to change after all is said and done in South Africa. Brazil and Argentina, as ever, are the main threats outside of the European contenders and the Golden Nuggets have already tipped a Brazil/Argentina final at 21.00. Both Dunga and Diego Maradona won the World Cup as captains, and one or the other stands a good chance of lifting the World Cup as a coach on July 11th.

PICK: 3.5*BRAZIL WIN THE WORLD CUP @ 6.00 (BETFAIR)

PICK: 3.5*ARGENTINA WIN THE WORLD CUP @ 8.40 (BETFAIR)

SWITZERLAND OUTRIGHT INDEX

Switzerland have been drawn in one the toughest groups along with European champions Spain and Marcelo Bielsa’s exciting Chile side. The Swiss also haven’t been helped by their set of fixtures which sees them face Spain first; then Chile and finally Honduras in a match that well decide who finishes last in the group. Sporting Index’s outright performance market awards points as follows;

Tournament winner = 100pts
Runner-Up = 75pts
Semi-Finalist = 50pts
Quarter-Finalist = 25pts
Round of 16 = 10pts
Group Stage = 0pts

We can maximise our profit by selling Switzerland’s outright index rather than their group index. They are an average side in a tough group and will be going home early.

PICK: 2*SELL SWITZERLAND’S OUTRIGHT INDEX @ 6 (SPORTING INDEX)

GROUP E

Up until now the Golden Nuggets has not delved into any markets involving this group but the form that the Dutch are taking into it is too good to ignore. Holland qualified for the World Cup with a 100% record in a very weak group and have been drawn in a group against teams that cannot boast the individual talent that the Dutch possess. Despite the possible absence of Arjen Robben, Holland should win this group relatively comfortably and set themselves up a strong run in the tournament.

PICK: 4*HOLLAND TO WIN GROUP E @ 1.59 (BETFAIR)

TOP ARSENAL GOALSCORER

Robin Van Persie has been on fire going into the tournament and will have plenty of chances to score goals in a very attacking and creative Dutch side. The other players in this market are Nicklas Bendtner (Denmark), Cesc Fabregas (Spain), Carlos Vela (Mexico), Abou Diaby (France), Emmanuel Eboue (Ivory Coast), William Gallas (France), Alex Song (Cameroon), Bacary Sagna (France), Gael Clichy (France), Philippe Senderos (Switzerland).

PICK: 4*ROBIN VAN PERSIE TO BE TOP ARSENAL GOALSCORER AT THE WORLD CUP @ 1.73 (LADBROKES)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM HANDICAP

Ladbrokes are offering an interesting market on the team to score the most goals in the tournament with a handicap applied. Spain are given the billing as favourites and start off on scratch. The each-way terms offer 4 places for a ¼ of the odds. Since the World Cup became a 32 team tournament the top scorers in the tournament have been Germany 13 (2006), Brazil 18 (2002) and France 15 (1998). Unsurprisingly the top four team scorers in each of those tournaments were dominated by sides that reached the latter stages. In all cases teams reached at least the last eight stage, in fact only three teams - Argentina/Brazil in 2006, and Spain in 2002 - didn’t reach at least the semi-finals (thus playing two more matches than everyone else). Now, these numbers don’t take into account the handicap that will be applied. That being said, reaching the latter stages is clearly an advantage, and since the Golden Nuggets are backing Brazil and Argentina in the outright winners market, it’s only natural that both sides stand a good chance of scoring around 14 goals or more over the course of the tournament (should they play seven matches). It is also worth our while to pick out a side that has the capability to reach the last eight, who have been handed a generous handicap, and that team in my view is Serbia. We will back all three nations each-way.

PICK: 2*(EACH-WAY) BRAZIL (+1) TO WIN HIGHEST SCORING TEAM HANDICAP (1/4 ODDS 1-4 PLACES) @ 21.00 (LADBROKES)

PICK: 2*(EACH-WAY) ARGENTINA (+2) TO WIN HIGHEST SCORING TEAM HANDICAP (1/4 ODDS 1-4 PLACES) @ 21.00 (LADBROKES)

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) SERBIA (+7) TO WIN HIGHEST SCORING TEAM HANDICAP (1/4 ODDS 1-4 PLACES) @ 26.00 (LADBROKES)

Below you can find the handicap being applied to each nation in this market.

NORTH KOREA +11, NEW ZEALAND +10, HONDURAS +9, SOUTH AFRICA +8, SOUTH KOREA +8, GREECE +8, AUSTRALIA +8, SLOVAKIA +8, ALGERIA +8, JAPAN +8, DENMARK +8, MEXICO +7, URUGUAY +7, NIGERIA +7, SERBIA +7, GHANA +7, USA +7, CAMEROON +7, SLOVENIA +7, SWITZERLAND +7, PARAGUAY +6, IVORY COAST +6, CHILE +6, FRANCE +5, PORTUGAL +5, GERMANY +4, HOLLAND +3, ITALY +3, ARGENTINA +2, ENGLAND +1, BRAZIL +1, SPAIN SCRATCH.

Sports Magician