The Overrule: Wimbledon 2010 Preview

By Sports Magician


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For the first time in many years I find it hard to have a fixed opinion on who will win the men's event at Wimbledon. For so long it has been easy to almost blindly back Roger Federer, with seemingly no price appearing too short. This year just doesn’t feel the same. Federer has lost two grass court matches in seven years - just ridiculous. On pedigree alone he probably justifies his price, but I can’t bring myself to back him. Rafael Nadal’s loss to Feliciano Lopez was worrying and his draw is by no means easy. Andy Murray has a quarter he should negotiate - more of which soon - but the fact is he has been a disappointment since reaching the Australian Open final at the start of the year. Novak Djokovic hasn’t had a great season, either. Andy Roddick is always a contender on grass, but losing to Dudi Sela at Queen’s was a real blow to his grass court preparation.

The Overrule will not, at this stage at least, be delving into the outright market. For now there are three selections that appeal in the quarter betting market.

Lleyton Hewitt was backed at 15.00 to win Halle by the Overrule and the Aussie duly obliged, topping Federer in the final. It was the first time Hewitt had beaten Federer in about 47 years. Ok, it wasn’t that long, but it feels like it was. Hewitt played some really good tennis in Halle, where he was playing for the first time, having spent his whole career preparing for Wimbledon at Queen’s. Hewitt will be a tough nut to crack in the second quarter where Djokovic, Roddick and Marin Cilic also reside.

Andy Murray has to be pleased with his draw. Despite the fact we haven’t seen him at his best for a while, Murray can negotiate his quarter even if he is a little below par. Fernando Verdasco and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga represent his greatest threats on paper but Murray can come out of his quarter at odds against.

John Isner’s mighty serve is begging to be backed in a quarter that features Nadal and Robin Soderling. The American will be very hard to beat and the massive odds available on him are worth a point.

PICK: 2*LLEYTON HEWITT TO WIN THE SECOND QUARTER @ 5.50 (BET 365 / TOTESPORT)

PICK: 4*ANDY MURRAY TO WIN THE THIRD QUARTER @ 2.10 (TOTESPORT)

PICK: 1*JOHN ISNER TO WIN FOURTH QUARTER @ 26.00 (SKY BET / TOTESPORT)

WOMEN

The Overrule backed Maria Sharapova to win Wimbledon (each-way) during the tour event in Birmingham where Masha finished runner-up. The draw has not been kind as Sharapova and Serena Williams look set for a blockbuster fourth round showdown. If Sharapova can come through that titanic battle then her chances of making the final will soar, but if Sharapova can’t stop Serena it’s hard to see who might be able to put the brakes on another all-Williams Wimbledon final.

The second quarter of the draw is where we would have liked to back Victoria Azarenka, who secured us a place at Eastbourne after we backed her each-way at 23.00. However, Azarenka once again picked up an injury (this time it was the knee) during the tournament against Kim Clijsters. Despite the obvious pain, Vika battled her way past Clijsters and Marion Bartoli to reach the final. We just can’t afford to back Azarenka again having already been stung by her injury problems during the clay court season. The Overrule can only hope that Azarenka’s injury problems are a thing of the past once the US Open rolls around so that we might get a chance to see her fulfil her undoubted potential.

The third quarter of the draw, much like the first quarter, looks set to provide us with a box-office fourth round encounter as Belgian duo Clijsters and Justine Henin are on a collision course. Most will expect the winner to prevail from the quarter, but the Overrule senses the opportunity to back Jelena Jankovic and Nadia Petrova at generous odds. Jankovic will meet Laura Robson in first round action, a match likely to grace Centre Court, which will please Jelena after her complaints in the past that her matches were being placed on courts where she “needed a helicopter to get to”. That’s why I love Jelena, she’s so melodramatic about everything, sometimes to a fault, but she’s a character worth watching. She also has the best initials in tennis, and I’m not just saying that because our initials are the same.

Venus Williams loves Wimbledon; it’s the only tournament where she looks totally at ease, even if she has still managed to obtain good results throughout the year. Had Venus been given a remotely testing draw, I’d have been looking to oppose her. However, her draw will have her dreaming of another Wimbledon title, or at least another final appearance. The good news for the Overrule is that Ana Ivanovic, whose Grand Slam performance we ‘sold’ earlier in the year, is placed in this section of the draw and she has about as much chance of taking out Venus as I have of having a threesome with Ana and Sorana Cirstea tonight, or any night, actually.

PICK: 3.5*ALL WILLIAMS (SERENA & VENUS) WIMBLEDON FINAL @ 4.50 (TOTESPORT / PADDY POWER)

PICK: 1.5*JELENA JANKOVIC TO WIN THE THIRD QUARTER @ 7.00 (SKY BET)

PICK: 1*NADIA PETROVA TO WIN THE THIRD QUARTER @ 15.00 (SKY BET / LADBROKES)

PICK: 5*VENUS WILLIAMS TO WIN THE FOURTH QUARTER @ 2.00 (BETFRED)

Sports Magician