The Overrule: US Open 2010

By Sports Magician

MEN

The 2010 US Open is wide open in the men's event with Juan Martin del Potro unfortunately being unable to defend the Grand Slam he won last year in a fantastic five set final against Roger Federer. The Overrule tipped del Potro to win at Flushing Meadows last year at 15.00, but we won’t have the chance to back him again at his favourite tournament. Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray are all too short for various reasons. Federer, because he simply hasn’t been able to replicate the Grand Slam winning form he showed in Australia at the start of the year. Nadal, because he has always struggled to deal with the pace of US hard courts and the pounding his knees take on the surface - despite twice being a semi-finalist. Murray, because despite being his favourite surface there is a sense that he is starting to feel the pressure build in his pursuit of a Grand Slam title.

We have the opportunity to find some huge value in Nikolay Davydenko, who has twice reached the last four at the US Open (in 2006 & 2007). Robin Soderling and Tomas Berdych have both been cut far too short at this stage and it seems like the bookies are sleeping on the Russian. Davydenko has missed most of the season through injury, but returned for the short grass court season - where he never fares well. Hard courts are where we will start to see the real Davydenko emerge and I expect his price to be cut to around the 16-20’s by the time the US Open begins at the end of August. If the draw is kind to us and he avoids Federer’s half (as he has always had trouble with the now world number three) then the price we are taking now will look even bigger than it does at present.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO WIN US OPEN (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 34.00 (BET365)

WOMEN

Before Wimbledon the Overrule tipped Maria Sharapova (each-way) for US Open glory this year and now the opportunity arises to add another Russian to that portfolio. Like Sharapova, Svetlana Kuznetsova is a former US Open champion (2004) and despite a wretched 2010 season she looks massively overpriced. Serena Williams is the undeniable favourite for the tournament and rightly so, but with the confirmed absence of Justine Henin, Sveta surely has the pedigree to be priced in the same range as Elena Dementieva and especially Sam Stosur. Aussie Stosur is as short as 13.00 for the US Open which is quite ridiculous, while Kuznetsova is as big as 36.00 which is outrageous.

That triumph six years ago was not the only deep run Kuznetsova has had at the US Open; in 2007 she was a losing finalist to Henin. The ability and shot-making will always be there for Kuznetsova, its confidence in her own game which is currently holding her back. All it will take is a couple of wins on the spin for her to slowly start to recover her self-belief. If she can put a run together before the US Open begins then I’d expect her price to be in line or shorter with a number of players who are ahead of her in the betting at present. Going by the prices, we are led to believe there are ten players who have a greater chance of success at this year’s US Open than the Russian, but that just isn’t the reality of the situation.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA WIN US OPEN (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 36.00 (PADDY POWER)

Sports Magician