The Overrule: Davis Cup Quarter Finals & WTA Budapest

By Sports Magician

Once again Davis Cup action has been hampered by a demanding season with a number of star performers unable to compete due to injury or fatigue; Rafael Nadal, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin del Potro, Ivo Karlovic, Fernando Gonzalez, Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek are all out of their respective ties. In fact Tsonga’s replacement, Richard Gasquet, and his replacement, Paul-Henri Mathieu were also forced to pull out! It’s a shame all this talent won’t be on show, but Davis Cup goes on and heroes will emerge, as they always do in this fascinating competition.

The Overrule already has various positions in the outright market and we find decent value in backing all of our outright selections to move on to the last four. Here is where we currently stand in the outright market.


FRANCE v SPAIN

Gael Monfils can get France off to a perfect start by beating David Ferrer. Monfils won the only meeting between the two at Roland Garros in 2008 and he should relish the spectacle and atmosphere that Davis Cup provides, as well as the faster conditions. France also have the edge in doubles action, with Michael Llodra, their doubles specialist, set to face off with Fernando Verdasco in Friday’s second rubber in addition to his doubles duties.

PICK: 3*GAEL MONFILS BEAT DAVID FERRER @ 2.00 (BET 365 / VCBET / WILLIAM HILL)

PICK: 2*FRANCE BEAT SPAIN @ 2.73 (BWIN)

RUSSIA v ARGENTINA

A re-match of the 2006 final and as always David Nalbandian is there for Argentina when his country comes calling. Reports suggest that Nalbandian could have played at Wimbledon but chose to prepare solely for this Davis Cup tie instead. Argentina have never won the Davis Cup, despite a generation of players that should have been good enough to win multiple Davis Cups in recent years. The absence of Juan Martin del Potro means this tie isn’t the formality it could have been for Argentina, who go into the match with the same squad that won in Sweden. Davydenko, like Nalbandian, is recently back from injury and looked below his best on grass, which was to be expected. It’s hard to call a match between two players who aren’t at their peak physically, but we have to side with the value in what is a 50/50 encounter, with Nalbandian having a mighty edge in Davis Cup pedigree. It’s rare that Argentina have the edge in doubles, but that may actually be the case in this instance, and for that reason along with the Nalbandian-factor they appear overpriced to make it to another Davis Cup semi-final.

PICK: 3*DAVID NALBANDIAN BEAT NIKOLAY DAVYDENKO @ 2.37 (BET 365)

PICK: 2*ARGENTINA BEAT RUSSIA @ 3.25 (VCBET / BLUESQ)


CROATIA v SERBIA

This should be some tie. The atmosphere should be incredible and the pressure immense for all players involved. Ivan Ljubicic is back for Croatia after Ivo Karlovic and Mario Ancic were ruled out. Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic have huge expectations on their shoulders as their nation’s number one players. The pressure on Djokovic to get a win against Ljubicic is huge, as he will surely know that defeat will leave them 2-0 down going into doubles play - where Serbia have the edge. On the flip side, should Djokovic win, Cilic will be under even more pressure to ensure Croatia go into the doubles tied at 1-1. It is going to be some day of tennis in Split. Ljubicic is a huge price against Djokovic on what will be a lightening court and Croatia’s chances have been underestimated by the bookies.

PICK: 2*IVAN LJUBICIC BEAT NOVAK DJOKOVIC @ 4.60 (BOYLESPORTS)

PICK: 2*CROATIA BEAT SERBIA @ 3.00 (BOYLESPORTS)


CHILE v CZECH REPUBLIC

This could be the mug-fest of 2010. Chile are without Fernando Gonzalez, which is a major loss for the South Americans. Things are worse for the Czechs, no Tomas Berdych or Radek Stepanek. Those absences for the Czechs give the edge to Chile in quite a way. The replacement singles players - Jan Hajek and Ivo Minar are just not used to the level of pressure that Davis Cup provides. Nicolas Massu leads Chile and he will be expected to provide two wins for the Chileans. Massu won Olympic gold in singles and doubles (with Gonzalez) in 2004, but it goes without saying he isn’t the player he once was, although he still has the heart of a lion. Massu should see off Minar on Friday, while Paul Capdeville is overpriced to beat Hajek, whom I strongly believe will struggle to deal with the expectancy on his shoulders. Capdeville is not having a good year, by any standards, but he has the potential to play at a higher level than Hajek and Davis Cup play often brings out the best in home players. The Czechs still have the edge in doubles, but they may not be able to post a singles win, and for that reason the Chileans are a maximum confidence selection for the Overrule.

PICK: 4*NICOLAS MASSU BEAT IVO MINAR @ 1.67 (WILLIAM HILL)

PICK: 2*PAUL CAPDEVILLE BEAT JAN HAJEK @ 2.75 (PADDY POWER / WILLIAM HILL)

PICK: 5*CHILE BEAT CZECH REPUBLIC @ 1.73 (LADBROKES)


WTA BUDAPEST

Away from Davis Cup play on the men’s circuit, tour action continues in Budapest on clay for the women. Anastasija Sevastova and Alexandra Dulgheru met two years ago on the ITF circuit when both players were ranked in the hundreds and now they meet once again with both on their way up on the WTA Tour. Dulgheru has had a very good couple of months, but Sevastova is a player who impresses me greatly. She has no respect for reputations and despite being lower ranked than her Romanian opponent; I believe she has a bigger future in the long term. Dulgheru shouldn’t be this short and Sevastova shouldn’t be this big, so it’s a no-brainer.

PICK: 3*ANASTASIJA SEVASTOVA BEAT ALEXANDRA DULGHERU @ 2.80 (BOYLESPORTS)

Sports Magician