The Overrule: ATP Bastad & Stuttgart

By Sports Magician

ATP BASTAD

Bookmakers just seem to be obsessed with Robin Soderling these days; he was once an underrated player, who is now becoming increasingly overrated. The Swede is a rightful favourite to win his home tournament which he won in 2009, but he is woefully short to do so. Soderling has only won 5 titles in his career, so he hardly has a pedigree of swallowing up tour titles, and there are a number of hardened clay courters in this draw who will fancy their chances of doing well.

The Overrule likes the look of two Spaniards who had a disappointing Davis Cup weekend. David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco both suffered singles defeats last Friday against France, and Verdasco went on to lose the doubles with Feliciano Lopez as Spain lost their grip on the Davis Cup. It was a rare sporting disappointment for Spain, who have come to dominate tennis and football in recent years like never before. Ferrer is drawn in Soderling’s half of the draw and faces Fabio Fognini in second round action. Ferrer’s chances of reaching the last four are quite strong and there he will most probably face Soderling - who he has a 2-2 record with on clay, the Swede has won their four other meetings away from clay.

Verdasco has not been in the best of form since the bulk of the European clay court season ended. Physically he was not at his best at Roland Garros and performed poorly at Wimbledon, as well as being an easy Davis Cup ‘victim’ in France. And by that I mean allowing the Davis Cup atmosphere to get to him to the extent that it adversely affected his performance. Verdasco’s draw is quite negotiable; he begins his Bastad campaign against Stephane Robert. He might meet a fading Tommy Robredo and Nicolas Almagro before a prospective final. Almagro beat Verdasco at the French Open, but the lefty has a dominating head to head record with Nico. He had never lost a set to him before Roland Garros.

PICK: 2*(EACH-WAY) DAVID FERRER WIN BASTAD (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 6.50 (BETFRED)

PICK: 3*(EACH-WAY) FERNANDO VERDASCO WIN BASTAD (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 6.0 (STAN JAMES)


ATP STUTTGART

Nikolay Davydenko had a horrible Davis Cup weekend and I’m very surprised to see him priced up as short as he would be if he was actually in great form. Davydenko firing on all cylinders would be more than worthy of such a short price, but having recently returned from injury and looking completely out of sorts? No thanks. Davydenko was beaten in straight sets by David Nalbandian - who had even less match practice than the Russian, after recovering from his own injury problems - and then performed very poorly in doubles action, where he was broken five times. He even admitted after the tie was eventually lost that he seriously considered withdrawing his services for Sunday’s reverse singles, but soldiered on to record an unimpressive four set win against Eduardo Schwank.

Davydenko can’t be backed in the top half of the draw, despite an easy beginning on paper. Gael Monfils, on the other hand, could be the one to profit from the Russian’s lack of match play. Monfils had an underwhelming clay court season in which he lost in the second round of Roland Garros, and in fact in general terms this season he hasn’t done anything of note. Monfils has all the skills to become an elite player, the question is does he have the mental strength to tough out situations that need exactly that.

Former King of Clay Juan Carlos Ferrero won two clay court titles earlier in the season in South America and he will like his chances of doing well in Stuttgart. Ferrero was a surprising loser to Robby Ginepri at the French Open and was 0-2 during the grass court season. He’ll be glad to be back on clay and has had plenty of time to prepare well for this tournament. Ferrero opens up against Argentine Horacio Zeballos, who has the capability of providing some resistance. A meeting with either Jurgen Melzer or Albert Montanes may await in a prospective semi-final and Ferrero holds dominating head to heads over both players - Melzer (4-2) and Montanes (5-0).

In second round action German Simon Greul appears overpriced against Gilles Simon. Simon is playing in his first clay court event of the season after struggling with a knee injury for the best part of a year. The Frenchman could only overcome Jamaican Dustin Brown - who is awful on clay - by virtue of a third set tie-break in first round action. Greul disposed of Michael Berrer in straight sets. Greul reached a career high ranking of 55 earlier in the year and can be a tough beat for Simon who is nowhere near the level that saw him ranked as high as 6 last year.

PICK: 2*SIMON GREUL BEAT GILLES SIMON @ 2.50 (WILLIAM HILL / VCBET)

PICK: 2*(EACH-WAY) GAEL MONFILS WIN STUTTGART (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 6.50 (BET 365 / BETFRED / VCBET / PADDY POWER)

PICK: 3*(EACH-WAY) JUAN CARLOS FERRERO WIN STUTTGART (1/2 ODDS 1-2 PLACES) @ 6.5 (LADBROKES)

Sports Magician