Unsportsmanlike Conduct - First Down

By Sports Magician

Welcome to the first edition of Unsportsmanlike Conduct, a new series of articles that will be covering the National Football League (NFL) for the coming season. During the next few weeks there will be four ‘downs’ (articles) that will cover the NFL before the season begins on September 9th. Unsportsmanlike Conduct will also highlight the value each and every week of the regular season, as well as coverage during each week of the playoffs. And we’ll attempt to have some fun along the way, as well. Although an obligatory Kim Kardashian picture is on hold for the time being while I digest the fact she is going out with Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys.

In this edition of the series we will look at markets involving player performances at the respective skill positions on offense.

MOST REGULAR SEASON PASSING YARDS



Matt Schaub of the Houston Texans topped the passing yard charts for quarterbacks last season racking up 4770 yards. Schaub was traded to the Texans from the Atlanta Falcons in 2007, a move that proved to be ill advised on behalf of the Falcons. Within months of Schaub’s trade – he was the back up in Atlanta to Michael Vick – Vick was embroiled in a dog-fighting scandal that eventually saw him jailed (Vick has since returned to the NFL, but is now nothing more than a footnote).

Houston’s failure to maintain a consistently productive running game is often the reason why they are forced to air it out. It doesn’t hurt that they also possess one of the best wide receivers in the league – Andre Johnson. Falling behind in games is another reason why Houston are forced to put the ball in the air more than they would like to. For the past couple of years a fair number of pundits have tipped the Texans to reach the playoffs, but each time they have failed, losing games in ways that have to be seen to be believed. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is a term that would sum the Texans up quite aptly. Schaub has the capability to put numbers on the board once again this season, but whether that translates into Houston making the playoffs is another matter entirely.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) MATT SCHAUB MOST REGULAR SEASON PASSING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 11.00 (STAN JAMES)



Tom Brady’s long-term future in New England may be dependant on him continuing to prove he is an elite quarterback this season. Brady has been a Patriot his entire professional career, in the process he has picked up 3 Super Bowl rings, 2 Super Bowl MVPs (Most Valuable Player) and 5 Pro Bowl selections. At a franchise that has built its success on “team”, Brady is the x-factor, the golden boy of the NFL who quickly became a regular celebrity gossip column topic. He’s had a child with his ex, actress Bridget Moynahan, and has had another with his model wife, Gisela Bundchen, clearly exhibiting productivity off the field as well as on it.

Brady threw for 4398 yards last season, which was 5th highest in the league. Brady was the passing leader in 2007, but missed all but the opening minutes of the 2008 season after tearing his ACL and MCL. Brady has one year left on his contract and the Patriots have often been unforgiving and not remotely sentimental when it comes to contract talks with their veteran players. Brady has to be a different case, though, right? Time will tell. Rumours are that a short-term contract will be offered to Brady in line with the pay scale he would expect. Further illustrating the point that the Patriots are unwilling to frontload long-term contracts to players that they feel are outstaying their welcome. A strong season from Brady might force the Patriots to change their stance on contract talks with players over the age of 30.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) TOM BRADY MOST REGULAR SEASON PASSING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 12.00 (STAN JAMES)

MOST REGULAR SEASON RUSHING YARDS



Chris Johnson is the undeniable and justified favourite to win the rushing title after he Rolls-Royced his way to 2006 yards last season. The Tennessee Titans running back has spent most of the off-season on his Twitter page wondering why his team won’t shelve the 5-year rookie contract he signed in 2008 and pay him like he’s the best running back in the league. Johnson has quickly learnt that the NFL is a business and that teams rarely move an inch if it means they can underpay a player in comparison to his respective value. A short-term solution has been found with Tennessee paying bonuses that Johnson was due to receive in 2012, now. The issue is certainly not closed, though, and Johnson hasn’t been shy in expressing his unhappiness at the situation.

How might it affect his performance this season? Johnson wants the money his performances dictate he deserves and a major drop off this season won’t help his position at the negotiating table this time next year. I’m not convinced Johnson will run for anywhere near 2000 yards this season – not that he isn’t capable of it, it’s just incredibly hard to do – but given that he was nearly 600 yards ahead of his nearest rival last season in the rushing stakes, he has more than a fair chance of leading the league once again – and then Tennessee will be forced to give him his money.

PICK: 3*(EACH-WAY) CHRIS JOHNSON MOST REGULAR SEASON RUSHING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 6.50 (STAN JAMES)



Since his rookie year in 2004/05 Steven Jackson has rushed for over 1000 yards every season since, despite the fact he has only ever completed one full season without missing games through injury. Jackson rushed for 1528 yards during 2006/07 in what is his career year to date. The St. Louis Rams running back stacked up 1416 yards last season in 15 regular season games for a team that struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. The Rams drafted Sam Bradford at quarterback this year and the need for Jackson to continue his productivity will be essential to help his rookie quarterback adjust to life in the NFL.

Jackson had back surgery in the off-season and given his proven inability in past seasons to last the full 16 games of the regular season, it would be fair to say that we’re taking a risk in backing him in this market, but the upside is that if he can play 14-16 games, then his price becomes quite appealing. In the NFL you’re always a play away from a season ending injury, that’s the nature of the sport.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) STEVEN JACKSON MOST REGULAR SEASON RUSHING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 21.00 (STAN JAMES)



After four years of a relatively wasted NFL career Cedric Benson finally decided to show up. The number four selection in the 2005 draft spent three unproductive years in Chicago where he only made headlines for his alcohol related arrests. Out of nowhere Benson rushed for 1251 yards last season – the first time he had cracked the 1000 mark – that included six 100-yard rushing games (a Cincinnati Bengals record). Benson achieved that feat despite missing three games of the regular season, which makes it that much more impressive. Given that Benson will be expected to carry the load for the Bengals he appears overpriced.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) CEDRIC BENSON MOST REGULAR SEASON RUSHING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 41.00 (STAN JAMES)

MOST REGULAR SEASON RECEIVING YARDS



Andre Johnson was mentioned earlier in relation to Matt Schaub’s chances of being amongst the passing leaders this season, and naturally he interests us in the receiving market. Johnson has led the league in receiving yards for the past two seasons and he can hold on to that accolade. Johnson has completed five full seasons for the Houston Texans in a seven year NFL career. His durability can be counted on; he has safe hands, blistering speed and awesome power. There are a lot of receivers who talk a good game; Johnson does his talking on the field.

PICK: 3*(EACH-WAY) ANDRE JOHNSON MOST REGULAR SEASON RECEIVING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-4 PLACES) @ 6.50 (SKY BET)



Hakeem Nicks is ready for lift off. After a decent rookie year in which he put up 790 yards receiving in 14 games, Nicks is ready to explode on to a different level this season. Now established as a starting receiver for the New York Giants, Nick’s ability to turn 15-yard catches into 40-yard gains will become a regular highlight on ESPN this season. The Giants pride themselves on a balanced offense between run and pass, but we should definitely expect to see the Giants utilise Nicks more and more as he becomes fully accustomed to the playbook. Nicks has spent the off-season with quarterback Eli Manning to work on their timing and chemistry, the results of which we will see as the season progresses.

Steve Smith – the other Giants starting receiver – broke a franchise record for receptions last season with 107. Smith is the more dependable of the two and Manning will continually look to Smith to convert third downs. But Nicks offers the consistent big play threat and with a full season of games he can make his price look very, very big. As long as he remains healthy, I’ll be amazed if Nicks doesn’t break 1000 yards receiving this season.

PICK: 1*(EACH-WAY) HAKEEM NICKS MOST REGULAR SEASON RECEIVING YARDS (1/4 ODDS 1-3 PLACES) @ 51.00 (TOTE SPORT)

Next week in the second down of Unsportsmanlike Conduct we will be looking at the outright market for Super Bowl XLV.

Sports Magician