Unsportsmanlike Conduct - Third Down

By Sports Magician

In the third down of Unsportsmanlike Conduct we take a closer look at the respective divisions.

AFC EAST

The New York Jets have been doing a lot of talking in the off-season about how they are going to win the Super Bowl, but they might want to set their sights on winning the AFC East to begin with. The Jets came close last season but the New England Patriots held them off with a 10-6 record. The Jets fell one game short and were left to rue a number of games in which they were expected to win. We’ve backed the Jets to back up their talking on the field with a run at the Super Bowl, but as far as the division is concerned we’ll be taking the duel forecast option, which means that if the Jets and Patriots finish first and second, in whichever order, we’ll be on to a winner.

PICK: 3*(DUAL FORECAST) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS/NEW YORK JETS AFC EAST @ 2.00 (BOYLESPORTS / STAN JAMES)

AFC NORTH

The Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers were separated by just one game last season but the Ravens can ease away from their rivals this season. We’ve already detailed the improvements the Ravens have made in the off-season in the second down of Unsportsmanlike Conduct and fully expect those upgrades to bring home a division title. The Bengals were surprising winners of the division last season where they swept their AFC North rivals. The arrival of Terrell Owens means Cincinnati won’t be short of media attention but they’ll have to be even better than they were last season to keep up with Baltimore. The Steelers are hampered by the suspension to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger – who is set to miss the opening six games. I expect that will eventually be cut to four games following “good behaviour”, but missing games against the Atlanta Falcons, Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens might prove costly as far as the race for the division goes.

PICK: 3*BALTIMORE RAVENS WIN AFC NORTH @ 2.00 (SPORTINGBET / STAN JAMES)

AFC SOUTH

The Indianapolis Colts won their division at a canter last season with a 14-2 record, in fact the Colts were on course for a perfect regular season until they decided to rest many of their starters. Many - including myself, derided that decision. Particularly since the Colts didn’t rest their starters for the entirety of their remaining schedule. If you are worried about injuries to key players, then fair enough. But a player in the NFL is just as likely to be injured in the first quarter than the fourth quarter. So if you aren’t concerned enough to keep them out of the game altogether, then it seems a strange decision. The Colts had a chance to create some history for their franchise and they just allowed it to pass them by. Had they won the Super Bowl they might have been able to claim they were right to do what they did, but they didn’t.

The Colts are still the class of the division and will leave the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans to scramble for the two-wildcard spots in the Conference. As for the Jacksonville Jaguars? They are best avoided, they win when they should lose, they lose when they should win and you just never know where you stand with those guys. I have a rule of never getting involved with Jaguars games, although as the season progresses there nearly always pops up an opportunity that tempts the wallet as far as Jaguars games are concerned. And it nearly always ends badly for me.

PICK: 3*INDIANAPOLIS COLTS WIN AFC SOUTH @ 1.67 (SKY BET / BOYLESPORTS)

AFC WEST

Here’s the story of the AFC West for the past two seasons. The San Diego Chargers enter the season as everyone’s dark horse for Super Bowl glory and are short-priced favourites to win the division. The Chargers start off slow and the Denver Broncos take charge of the division. Then the Broncos implode and the Chargers come strong late to win the division. So how is the 2010 season shaping up? Well, just like the past two years the Chargers are strong favourites for the division and there are signs that San Diego may start the season in reverse. Three of the Chargers starters, including wide receiver Vincent Jackson (who is suspended for the first three games of the season), are threatening to hold out for the majority of the season until their contract gripes are resolved. The Chargers front office are holding firm, essentially calling the players’ bluff.

The front office usually wins stand-offs like this, and I dare say they will again. I’ve read and seen many a player claim they will hold out for the entire season if they have to, but they eventually back down. It’s a negotiating tool and in the case of these Charger players, the only one they have. This season it’s not the Broncos who I think might take early advantage of a slow San Diego start. The Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs both had good off-seasons either through free agency or the draft and they could provide us with some wriggle room to re-enter this market during the season and ensure a profit on three teams within the division.

PICK: 1*OAKLAND RAIDERS WIN AFC WEST @ 10.00 (EXTRABET)

PICK: 1*KANSAS CITY CHIEFS WIN AFC WEST @ 10.00 (BETFRED / BODOG)

NFC EAST

The NFC East is the toughest division in the league. Historically it has always been the toughest and in recent years it has not been uncommon for both NFC wildcard spots to come from the NFC East, which further highlights how strong the division has been. We’ve backed the New York Giants in the market for the Super Bowl and we’ll be backing them to top the division in the straight forecast market along with the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins.

We’re essentially writing off the Philadelphia Eagles but that doesn’t mean the Eagles won’t still have a respectable season. The Eagles went 11-5 last season but decided to let Donovan McNabb leave for the Redskins. In the short term I believe the Eagles will regret that decision, but long term it was a move they probably had to make.

PICK: 3*(STRAIGHT FORECAST) NEW YORK GIANTS/DALLAS COWBOYS @ 7.00 (SKY BET / BOYLESPORTS)

PICK: 1*(STRAIGHT FORECAST) NEW YORK GIANTS/WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ 23.00 (SKY BET)

NFC NORTH

Those that know me are fully aware that Brett Favre is a guy I don’t like to waste too much of my time talking about, and so I won’t. He’s a Hall of Fame quarterback and he’s also an attention-seeker extraordinaire. Whether he does return to the Minnesota Vikings or not (and I’m quite sure he will return) doesn’t alter my view on how the division will pan out. The Green Bay Packers lost both games to the Vikings last season and that cost them the division title. The Packers are a young team, improving year after year ever since the Packers and Favre finally cut ties. It seems a long time ago now when Aaron Rodgers was left waiting in the green room on Draft Day for over four hours as he sunk further and further down the first round of the draft. His draft drop cost him millions, but I’m sure he’ll be able to make up for that in future contracts.

The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions should both improve this season, and the Bears might even play a bigger role in who wins the division than the prices indicate. However, neither will be able to challenge the Packers sufficiently enough this season to stop them from winning the division.

PICK: 3*GREEN BAY PACKERS WIN NFC NORTH @ 2.25 (BODOG)

NFC SOUTH

The New Orleans Saints enter the season as defending Super Bowl champions but Reggie Bush surely has nothing to smile about having lost Kim Kardashian to Miles Austin of the Dallas Cowboys. This is the second time Bush has let Kardashian slip through his fingers, and when you see how big his hands are and how wonderfully bountiful Kim’s ass is, it’s hard to believe it could happen once, let alone twice. Reggie’s failure to protect all that is precious means I am strongly considering not picking him in my upcoming Fantasy NFL Draft should he drop to me.

That being said, we can’t ignore backing the Saints to top the division. They return nearly all of the key men in their success last season and they should prove too strong in the NFC South.

PICK: 3*NEW ORLEANS SAINTS WIN NFC SOUTH @ 1.67 (EXTRABET)

NFC WEST

In recent years the NFC West has been the weakest of all the divisions in the NFL and that may well be the case again this year. The San Francisco Giants deserve to be favourites to top the division, but quite honestly, they still have much to prove and I’m not convinced they will win the division without an almighty struggle. At the same time, Matt Hasselbeck has been finding it harder and harder to stay healthy for an entire season, and so backing the Seattle Seahawks does not appeal. The Arizona Cardinals can no longer rely on Kurt Warner (retired) at quarterback and Aquan Boldin has left for pastures new. Matt Leinart – who was such a roaring success in college at USC – can’t be relied upon at this time to take the Cardinals forward. He’s has been ordinary at best in his previous starts and it remains to be seen whether he can handle the pressure of being signal caller on a full-time basis.

There is plenty of work for the St. Louis Rams to do before they can have genuine hopes of winning the division. A year or two from now they may well enter the season as division favourites, but for the time being they haven’t made enough changes to go from a 1-15 season to being a division winner.

PICK: NO BET

Next week in the fourth and final down of Unsportsmanlike Conduct we will be looking at the over/under on various teams for their total regular season wins.

Sports Magician