Philadelphia Phillies (Brett Myers) @ Tampa Bay Rays (James Shields)
01:00 BST Friday 24th October

After an excellent pitching performance led by the ace of the rotation Cole Hamels last night the Phillies prevailed 3-2 to secure a lead in the best of seven show piece event. Having won away from home you could view this in a similar manner to getting a mini-break in a tennis tie-break.
With last nights defeat firmly in their mind, the Rays will have big pressure on their shoulders going into tonight's games because going 2-0 down with three away days to follow would be truly disastrous.
James Shields is a very good pitcher that has shown his potential over the course of his relatively short career so far and with a good head on him he should not be phased too much by the situation that the Rays find themselves in. Shields should be relied on to put up six or seven solid innings but as Scott Kazmir proved last night sometimes it isn't quite enough.
Brett Myers is a pitcher that is somewhat jekyll and hyde at times quite frankly. Having made an abysmal start to the 2008 season, Myers was sent to the Minor Leagues for a period of time and this seemed to stand him in excellent stead as he roared back in with some inspired performances.
Myers has the tools to succeed at the very top level and if he gets into his groove early and stays focused, he could well be very hard to get away.
The Phillies should really have won by a much larger margin last night because they continually threw away chances with men in scoring positions but the fact that they still managed to close things out in a tight situation away from home is testament to just how tough the 'Fightin Phills' really are.
Neither offense really fired at full pelt last night and this could be expected again at Tropicana Field but when play is in Philadelphia we will almost certainly see more runs because Citizen's Bank Park is not a large ball park and therefore with some of the power merchants in these two teams, we will see more dingers.     
This match boils down to value for me really. I personally would price the Rays as favourites at around the 1.8 mark and at this mark I would have been recommending 'No Bet' but if you scan around the odds comparison sites you will certainly see that this is not really even close to the sort of prices on offer. A best price of 1.67 is available on the Rays and this leaves me completely uninterested.
The way the markets are set up leaves a huge best price of 2.5 on the Phillies which is well worth a small investment because the price is an insult to the quality of their lineup and the ability of Brett Myers.
A runs mark of 8.5 seems a little high to me. Either pitcher is capable of shutting down the opposition but admittedly it isn't necessarily likely but what really tips the balance in terms of an unders pick is the brilliant bullpen's at work. The toast of Philadelphia Brad Lidge is now a perfect 47 from 47 in save situations this season after yet another closing performance last night.

STATS

RECOMMENDATIONS - 2 Points on Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.5 (Bet365)
3 Points on Under 8.5 Total Runs @ 1.91 (Skybet)

Crafty Stan