ENGLISH FOOTBALL WEEKEND

PORTSMOUTH V WIGAN ATHLETIC
1st November - 15:00 GMT

	Portsmouth wins	Draws	Wigan wins
League	7	2	3
FA Cup	1	0	0
Total	8	2	3

For all that I like Wigan and enjoy seeing them play this is a match in which I cannot ignore the overwhelming probability of a home victory for Pompey.

Having picked up performances after a stuttering start, 'Arry' has left Portsmouth to go to Spurs but this should definitely not dent the progress of the club in any way as Tony Adams was a terrifically astute player and leader of men. Adams got his players to set their stall out to be strong and resolute against the might of Liverpool at Anfield and but for a moment of madness from Papa Bouba Diop, the south coast side would almost certainly have held out for a very creditable point in the new boss's first game in charge.

In their five home matches so far this season Portsmouth have won three of the contests giving them a 60% home success rate (75% if you ignore the Manchester United game - some punters choose not to include big four statistics by choice) and match this up against the three losses in five away games suffered by Wigan giving an equal 60% loss rate (50% if you discount their loss to Liverpool) you will see that this is a bit of a swing towards Portsmouth.

Having been to Fratton Park myself on a couple of occasions and listened to matches played there on numerous occasions, I can attest that there are few grounds that can match the place in terms of what you would consider to be a genuinely uncomfortable location for Premiership footballers to play. I am pretty sure that this contributes to the success for Pompey in at least some small way and has proved to be a tough place for Wigan to play in the past as they have fell to defeats in this encounter in each of the previous two meetings at Fratton Park.

Having shipped nine in their last three matches I am not sure that the Wigan defence is capable of shutting firmly enough to hold out the likes of Jermaine Defoe and Peter Crouch. Watch out for the brilliant Amr Zaki though for Athletic - he really is as good as they say!
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3.5 Points Stake on Portsmouth @ 2 (PaddyPower)
 
 
GRIMSBY TOWN V DARLINGTON
1st November - 15:00 GMT

	Grimsby wins	Draws	Darlington wins
League	18	10	16
FA Cup	3	0	2
League Cup	1	0	1
Total	22	10	19

The value available in this clash absolutely astounds me. If it were not for the teams placed in administration in League Two this season, the Mariners would be languishing at the bottom and four points adrift of their nearest rivals so this should give you a bit of an impression on how accomplished the season to date has been.

The arrival of Mike Newell has given the Mariners a little glimmer of hope for this season and all being well for them Luton Town and Bournemouth should be deep enough in the mire for them to survive in the Football League for at least another season. What Newell cannot do is perform miracles here and with a squad of the standard of an average Conference team there are troubled times ahead for the men in black and white.

Darlington by contrast are having a very good season to date and are sitting pretty in an automatic promotion spot at present. An airtight defence, the goal scoring prowess of Billy Clarke and ability to perform both at home and away are all key factors in the success of the Teeside club.
At 2.25 this is an incredible price really and seems borne out of enthusiasm for Grimsby's new manager rather than genuine probability. I'd have made it slightly sub even money and William Hill agree by making them 1.95 shots.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3 Points Stake on Darlington @ 2.25(Betfred)
 
Keep well and stay lucky!
 
Crafty Stan