Crafty Stan's Thursday Night MLB


Cincinnati Reds 8-6 (Harang 1-2, 2.70) @ Chicago Cubs 8-5 (Zambrano 1-0, 5.21)



23rd April 19:20 BST

Show us your aces!! It is the series decider between these two AL central teams and both of the staff ace pitchers will be out on show at Wrigley Field tonight and I am very much looking forward to this one!

Despite his shaky start to this season, Carlos Zambrano has had plenty of run support and has therefore maintained a winning record in his first three starts and will really relish facing the Reds tonight as he has a stellar record against them. Zambrano is 14-9 (3.03) against tonight's foes and if he can put up solid figures for at least seven innings tonight, the Reds may be struggling to compete on run scoring capabilities with the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs v Cincinnati Reds: Head to Head
Date	Away	Runs	Home	Runs	Winner	Total	O/U	Away Starter	Home Starter
04/22/2009	CIN	3	CHC	0	CIN	8½	U	J Cueto	T Lilly
04/21/2009	CIN	2	CHC	7	CHC	8	O	M Owings	R Harden
09/07/2008	CHC	3	CIN	4	CIN	9½	U	S Marshall	A Harang
09/06/2008	CHC	14	CIN	9	CHC	9½	O	J Marquis	J Cueto
09/05/2008	CHC	2	CIN	10	CIN	9	O	T Lilly	B Arroyo
08/21/2008	CIN	2	CHC	3	CHC	9	U	J Fogg	C Zambrano
08/20/2008	CIN	2	CHC	1	CIN	8½	U	B Arroyo	T Lilly
08/19/2008	CIN	0	CHC	5	CHC	7½	U	J Cueto	R Harden
07/10/2008	CIN	12	CHC	7	CIN	11	O	B Arroyo	T Lilly
07/09/2008	CIN	1	CHC	5	CHC	8	U	J Cueto	C Zambrano

Aaron Harang has a decent record against the Cubs on the whole as he is 8-6, but his earned run average of 4.81 against them must be a bit of a concern. His recent form against them is poor as he lost three of his four starts against the Chicago Club last year, gaining no decision in the other.

While if I'm honest I don't think there is a huge amount of difference in the standard of the two starting pitchers and I have a good amount of respect for Harang and think he is more than capable of having an excellent season after last year’s debacle. However, the problem for Harang here is he is up against an offense that has scored on average more than five runs per regular season game and he always seems to struggle to get support from the bats of the Reds. His early season stats can tell you that by the fact that his ERA is below three yet he still has a losing record.

The Chicago bats were quiet last night but I would be very surprised to see the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez staying quiet for a second night running. Lee in particular has a great record hitting vs Harang, he is career average of .304 with five homers and eleven runs batted in.

National League Central
Team	Record	Home	Away
St. Louis	10-5	7-2	3-3
Chi Cubs	8-5	4-3	4-2
Pittsburgh	9-6	6-3	3-3
Cincinnati	8-6	2-3	6-3
Houston	6-9	4-5	2-4
Milwaukee	5-9	2-4	3-5

Bearing in mind the slight advantage in terms of starting pitcher and bullpen back up and the large advantage in terms of offensive capabilities you would certainly make the Cubs big favourites for this one even away from home. The respective pitcher records against the opposition factor slightly in the equation as does the home advantage given to the Reds. I make the Cubs a 1.5 shot to win this game and given that there is 1.63 available with Boylesports, I think that you should gratefully accept this bit of value.

I made the total run make-up likely to be in the region of 8-9 so seeing the Centrebet quote of Under 10.5 Runs @ 2.04 I cannot resist recommending a bit of a dabble on this. I would have made Under 10.5 Runs about a 1.6 shot so once again, you have to side with the value here.

RECOMMENDATIONS - 4 Points on Chicago Cubs @ 1.63 Boylesports
3 Points on Under 10.5 @ 2.04

Crafty Stan