World Cup 2010 - South Africa (Group Stages)

By Crafty Stan

After another four years that just seems to have flown past we are ready for the fight for the world's biggest prize in sport.

All of the usual suspects will fancy their chances no doubt irrespective of the form, fitness and age of their squads. Brazil, Italy, Germany and Argentina are the teams of the modern era you could say have performed on the biggest stage, with honourable mention for the French who have been at the pinnacle in 1998 on home soil and went very close as Runners up to Italy in Germany 2006.

The form horses going into this tournament you would say are Spain having won the European Championships in 2008 and been generally pretty dominant in the International Football scene since then. With Goals a plenty from the likes of Fernando Torres and David Villa and a newly found steely determination, they are probably worthy of the favourites tag to go one better and take the big prize home.

England can never go without mention and once again a nation pins its hopes on what is an extremely talented set of players with one of the best coach's in the world in Fabio Capello. The English were handed a somewhat kind draw in the competition and will as is usually the case, fancy their chances highly here.

Never discount an outsider from a major tournament as Greece and Denmark have proved in the European Championships in 2004 and 1992 respectively but it takes that bit more to win the World Cup outside of the comfort zone of your own continent so always keep in mind any variables in terms of conditions, injuries and form once the tournament commences.

I'm going to take a look at each Group and pick out any value bets that stand out to me.

GROUP A

FRANCE
MEXICO
URUGUAY
SOUTH AFRICA

With the French in seemingly dreadful form and operating under one of the least popular French national coach's of all time in Raymond Domenech, they are surely ripe for plucking and ready to be taken on. Some bizarre selection choices have lurked over the team's chances, namely the omission of Karim Benzema, and having recently been beaten by China it is clear that morale is very low right now.

Bit of a coin-toss between Mexico and Uruguay as to who are better placed to capitalise on any mess-ups by the French but I narrowly lean towards Uruguay as qualification in South America is considerably more difficult, they have a proven top-level goalscorer in Diego Forlan and they do not look quite so fragile defensively as Mexico do.
The hosts South Africa will have an advantage in terms of being at home and knowing the altitude conditions but they lack any real world class and will likely be found out once again here.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

Uruguay to win Group A 1 pt @ 4.5 (Stan James, Paddy Power)

Uruguay to qualify 4 points @ 2.1 (Boylesports)

GROUP B

ARGENTINA
NIGERIA
GREECE
SOUTH KOREA

In terms of quality of personnel available to the coach, Argentina are probably one of the most, if not the most talented sides in World Football but with a mad man like Diego Maradona at the helm and a notoriously bad temperament amongst the squad at numerous times during qualification it may be difficult to trust the Argies here. Still, I'm certain they will get out of this group and most likely top it at no value.

This group has three other sides of relative similar class and for value you can not overlook the Koreans. Don't forget their mesmerising run to the Semi's in 2002. Nigeria are nowhere near the quality of team that they were in 1994, 1998 or even 2002 so despite the tournament being held in Africa, I cannot have them whatsoever so for me it is a straight shoot-out between Greece and South Korea for that other spot in the second round and as I have them about even I have to go with the bigger price and back the Koreans to qualify.

RECOMMENDATION: 2 points S.Korea to qualify @ 3.3 (Extrabet)

GROUP C

ENGLAND
USA
SLOVENIA
ALGERIA

For me this is the most one sided group of the tournament and despite my national pessimism often spilling over there is no way England will fail to qualify from this group unless they all get poisoned at the team hotel and even then I'd still expect them to pull through with any gastric problems!

Rio Ferdinand's injury is a blow and opens up new debates over John Terry's central defensive partner, particularly given Ledley King's seeming lack of fitness to play twice in a few days. However with England's best striker since Alan Shearer, a solid defence and a star filled Midfield it is easy to see why England are fancied. At least there are no penalties in the group stage!

USA are the best of the rest clearly and have made great strides in the last decade or so but I can't back them @ 1.72 to qualify from a group where one spot is already given up, they are not quite that good and as such I can't find a bet in this group because England and USA are so short.

Slovenia could show themselves to be a little better than expected and are clearly a capable lot as knocking the Russians out showed during the play off stage.

As for Algeria, watch highlights of their game against Ireland. Absolute Gash!

RECOMMENDATION:  NO BET

GROUP D

GERMANY
SERBIA
GHANA
AUSTRALIA

With great World Cup pedigree and a decent German side by recent pasts standards. We will see a far more enterprising team than we maybe historically used to from them, much in the way of the 2006 World Cup where they looked all set to blast their way through all comers before being shocked in the Semi's by the Italian's. Goals will flow and they should breeze past a group that is without a whipping boy but also lacking in a genuine rival. Defence may be a stumbling block to the big prize but only time will tell.

Serbia are a tough side and will be difficult for anyone to break down, they will be well drilled and will not be mugged off by anyone and should have just enough to edge Ghana and the Aussies out for the second spot.

I couldn't confidently say who will go through enough to part with any money where the markets lie but I do think Germany should be in the 1.72 region at a max so I will get involved in them to win the group.

RECOMMENDATION: 4 Points Germany to win group @ 1.91 (VCBet, Bluesq)

GROUP E

HOLLAND
DENMARK
CAMEROON
JAPAN

In recent Friendlies, and at numerous times over the past four years, the Dutch have looked brilliant. When they are flowing and the likes of Arjen Robben and Robin Van Persie and fit and firing, they do look irresistible going forward. The Dutch also have underrated defensive qualities and rarely concede two or more goals in a game so expect them to bring their A-Game to the dance but who knows if they will choke in the latter stages.

This Group for me is all about who goes through with Holland much like in other groups. I lean towards the African side. Cameroon have at times looked at home in major world events and if Samuel Eto'o can manage to stay fit and hit some form then teams could be in a lot of trouble. Denmark often come across as a very average side to me and despite their general group stage success in recent times I don't any majors factors within their ranks to scare anyone.

Having seen a lot of Japan in recent times it is fair to say they don't impress me. They were comprehensively outgunned in a recent game against South Korea and they should be nearer 6.5 to qualify.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1 Point Holland-Cameroon Straight Forecast @ 4.00 (VCBet)

2 Points Cameroon to qualify @ 2.1 (Betfred, VCBet)

GROUP F

ITALY
PARAGUAY
SLOVAKIA
NEW ZEALAND

Although Italy are World Champions, it is fair to say they have been at time patchy since their triumph in Germany. There is often an ageing element to an Italian squad and this time is much the same, add to this the fact that they struggled for much of the qualification campaign and many felt Ireland were unlucky not to have won the group. However what happened, happened, and Italy are as they always are, in the big show. I am expecting early rust from the Italians and this could leave the door open for somebody else to win the group. I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back the 1.57 on Italy winning Group F.

Paraguay had a mostly impressive Qualifying campaign and will probably see this year as their best ever chance of making a big impression. Last time out in the 2006 World Cup they were dismissed in the Group Stage without a whimper losing their opening two games to England and Sweden in tame affairs so things can surely only get better? I'm banking on it.

Slovakia came out on top of a highly competitive Qualifying group and will look to build on this momentum. A lack of experience at this level may well hamper their progress and a lack of genuine star quality within the ranks is likely to bring a halt to a no doubt spirited campaign.

New Zealand were celebrating a draw with Iraq last year as if they had won the World Cup. Nuff Said.

Have a look at VC's total group Goal quote too as it is far too high and that is worth a hefty wager.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1 Point Paraguay to win Group F @ 4.00 (Sky Bet, Tote, Stan James)

5 Points Group F total goals under 18 @ 3.25 (VCBet)

GROUP G

BRAZIL
PORTUGAL
IVORY COAST
NORTH KOREA

Without thinking about the North Koreans for a moment we have a pretty tasty three-way tussle between Brazil, Portugal and Ivory Coast but before we get disrespectful, it has to be said that probably the greatest upset in World Cup history was achieved by North Korea and therefore no room for complacency will be allowed.

I think Ivory Coast could suffer badly with the possible injury issues with Didier Drogba and truth be told they were a disappointment in the last World Cup despite high expectation going in. That said, they were matched in the group of death with the Argies, the Dutch and the Serbs. If Ronaldo gets into some form for Portugal I find it hard to imagine that the Ivory Coast will be able to match them.

Brazil are the obvious and worthy favourites for this group but to be perfectly honest with you I do not see the gap between them and Portugal being as wide as the prices suggest. Portugal have actually performed pretty well at major tournaments in the last decade or so and will not fear Brazil as the super power it once was. Robinho seems to have hit some serious form recently which is a plus for them but I have to swerve them here and side with Portugal who will be eyeing up emulating last time outs achievement of finishing in the semi final, but ideally bettering it!

RECOMMENDATION: 1 Point Portugal to win Group G @ 4.33 (Bet365)

GROUP H

SPAIN
CHILE
SWITZERLAND
HONDURAS

Truth be told the last day or so has changed my mind on this group. I have Spain as an obvious lock to qualify because of their strengths all over the park but my concern was always who will go through with them. Switzerland were the team I had a genuine fancy for but now star striker Alexander Frei is now injured for the Spain game and possibly longer I have been completely thrown here and can make no genuine judgement.

My one piece of advice would be not to overlook Honduras as they are here on merit and won’t be looking to make up the numbers. You don't beat Mexico if you are a team of chumps. Out of sheer love of the game I will be playing a little on them to qualify but I won’t recommend it to you, you will have to make your own mind up on whether that is value or not!

RECOMMENDATION: NO BET

I hope we get a wonderful tournament so enjoy it all from home, work or your local pub and hopefully we can win a few quid to top it all off!!

Crafty Stan