World Cup Semi Finals

By Crafty Stan

Holland v Uruguay



Tuesday 6th July 7:30 PM BST
BBC1 (19:30-22:00), ITV1 (19:30-22:00), STV HD (19:30-22:00), BBCHD (19:30-22:00), RTE Two (19:00-22:00)

Both of these sides could probably count themselves more than a tad fortunate to have progressed past their quarter final ties if the truth be told. Holland were not really at the races until a freakish goal from Wesley Sneijder not too dissimilar from Ronaldinho's against England in 2002 completely changed the course of the tie and halted all Brazilian momentum. Uruguay were much more fortunate in that a last gasp extra time penalty was squandered by Ghana in a thrilling finale in which the Uruguayan's eventually triumphed on penalties.

What I am anticipating is a really cagey affair. Both sides are well set up defensively and there will doubtless be a focus on not conceding. I see the Dutch having a slight edge on technical ability but do not see a huge gap between the two sides. The Dutch were actually underpriced for this tournament outright before the start in my opinion and irrespective of the fact that they are much shorter now I stick to that, they should have been a 14/1 shot and were punted in by casual punters thrilled by a few warm up matches. Uruguay were definitely overpriced. Around 150/1 was available on them pre-tournament and there will be a few fortunate punters rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of them reaching the final.

Luis Suarez's absence due to the controversial red card against Ghana is a blow to the South American hopes but it was of course a necessary evil and they would have gratefully accepted that trade at 120 mins in against Ghana. Diego Forlan is a massive threat even if he finds himself a little isolated at times. He skilfully scored from a dead ball scenario in the Quarter's and is well in with a sniff of the Golden Boot.

Holland have been largely efficient and not massively impressive to me. They pass the ball well at times and look composed at the back but they were rarely tested before the Brazil game and like I said, I thought they had the rub of the green in dispatching an off-colour team of usual undeniable class. I know they are capable of producing a devastating performance but I'm just not sure it will occur in South Africa.

My qualification tissue (To 100%) would be Holland 1.57, Uruguay 2.75 so the prices are way off in my estimation and the Uruguayans are some serious value. My over/under price for 2.5 goals would be unders at 1.44 and overs at 3.25 so it seems like the under is a definite bet for me too.

Uruguay should be favourites for me if it reaches a penalty shoot out stage as they are experts from the spot and the Dutch have had a torrid time over the years with shoot-outs much like England. The 12.0 available about a Uruguayan penalty shoot-out win appeals.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

2 Points on Uruguay to qualify @ 3.90 (Betfair)

3 Points on Under 2.5 Goals (90 mins) @ 1.65 (Betfair)

0.5 Points on Uruguay to win on penalties @ 12.0 (Sportingbet)


Germany v Spain



Wednesday 7th July, 7:30pm BST
BBC1 (19:30-22:00), ITV1 (19:30-22:00), STV HD (19:30-22:00), BBCHD (19:30-22:00), RTE Two (19:00-22:00)

Right from the beginning of this tournament the German's have impressed me greatly. Their youthful energy, pace and deadly finishing has been a joy to watch during this tournament and I for one would definitely not begrudge them winning the whole thing. They put on counter-attacking master classes to destroy England and Argentina who were both heavily fancied before the start of the tournament. It gets a bit clichéd, but the Germans always come to the World tournaments looking well prepared, there is lots for other countries to learn from their fine example.

Spain in complete contrast have not impressed me in the slightest. They seem to lumber through games in a pedestrian manner waiting for David Villa to score his obligatory goal. They are very adept at the back and that will always keep them in games and given the attacking prowess of the German side, they will need to be at their very best. Fernando Torres has looked out of form and confidence and generally lost much in a similar manner to Wayne Rooney, they need to replace him in my opinion. Bringing Cesc Fabregas in would give their more attacking midfield options chance to link up with Villa with more frequency and in my opinion would make them a more well rounded attack than the present set up.

Didn't think I would be saying this but I actually think Germany should be ever so slight favourites here so the even money about them qualifying looks worth a nibble based on the way the tournament has panned out, given Spain's general failure at World Cup competitions and the general success of the Germans in complete contrast.

I have no idea on goals really as Spain could dictate that. There could be a nil nil followed by extra time and penalties or it could be 4-3. Absolutely no idea.

RECOMMENDATION: 2.5 Points on Germany to qualify @ 2.0 (Bet365, Totesport)

Crafty Stan