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We have a very poor looking card this Wednesday night (Thursday morning for the UK) and there is only one match that interests me. The match to be previewed is the Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians.. Lots of stand in/converted bullpen pitchers are taking to the mound so this hampers judgement somewhat.
 

 

MINNESOTA TWINS (Baker 9-4, 3.57) @ CLEVELAND INDIANS (Lee 22-2, 2.36)
September 18th - 00:05 GMT
 

Cliff Lee has pitched terrifically all season and has been imperious at home for the Indians, however a good pitcher is only as good as his offense and as always he will need support.

Scott Baker has been excellent too albeit not shaking the world quite as impressively as his counterpart for the evening. This is a match up the Twins desperately need to win if they are to keep apace with the White Sox for the AL Central title and a place in post-season, so I expect a good start from Baker.

I completely concede that the Indians are worthy favourites for this encounter because Lee has been excellent and the Indians have home advantage. What I am not so sure about is that given that the Indians do not need to win this encounter and they are up against a team desperate to win and a very good pitcher, a best price of 1.58 seems a little insulting.

The Twins offense has been better than that of the Indians this season and this can almost negate the advantage given by the better starting pitcher, so the only thing left to contend with is the home advantage. Is the home advantage huge here? Well the Indians are 41-36 at home and the Twins are 33-43 on the road, so yes there is an advantage but not a huge one.

Bit of an outside shot here but I fancy Minnesota to defy the market and score a 2.56 winner here.

In terms of the total runs market, I think the line of 7.5 could be a little skinny. If either bullpen is in action early we could see a few more runs than that.

 

Justin Morneau (.308, 23 HR, 126 RBI) Minnesota Twins

Grady Sizemore (.271, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 38 SB) Cleveland Indians

 

RECOMMENDATION - 2.5 Points on Minnesota Twins @ 2.56 (Bet365)

2 Points on Over 7.5 Total Runs @ 1.83 (Sportingbet)