CARLING CUP ROUND 3

It is the time of the year when all of the European qualified teams join the competition at this last 32 stage. I will personally look to avoid 'the big four'(Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool) like the plague in this round so I can use their matches to assess their intentions. The matches that I am interested in though, are Leeds United v Hartlepool United and Sunderland v Northampton Town.
 
LEEDS UNITED V HARTLEPOOL UNITED
23rd September - 19:45 BST

It is tough to imagine that Leeds will be seriously hoping for a long cup run because they have a bit of a nasty habit of biting you when your season hits a crucial phase. Having said that, the majority of team find the extra cash handy and therefore will usually play to win. It is just that sometimes it is a different version of play. A team desperate to win may try and nick a victory and the contest could be a low scoring affair, whereas a team that would like to win but is not desperate would presumably be freed up somewhat and able to express themselves on the park, potentially leading to a slightly higher scoring contest.
Leeds have been scoring freely so far this season, not only in the Carling Cup but also in the league. Leeds have scored six goals in two Carling Cup fixtures and fifteen goals in seven league games, and this represents an excellent scoring rate.
Hartlepool are no shrinking violets themselves having scored six goals in the two games in this competition and notched up thirteen from their seven league fixtures too.
The nature of the tie and the statistics of goalscoring for either side should make the over 2.5 Goals price of 1.94, look terrific value.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 4 Points over 2.5 Goals @ 1.94 (Canbet)
 
SUNDERLAND V NORTHAMPTON TOWN
September 23rd - 19:45 BST

There is always a bit of a consensus that a lot of the mid-range teams of the Premiership are often proved to be much tougher contests for lower league teams in the Carling Cup than matches against the big four because their desire for victory is greater. The reason for this is suggested to be that because some of the stronger suits select weaker teams than in other competitions, giving rise to the idea that this is an eminently more winnable competition and therefore an easier passage to European football. Sunderland could just fit into this category.
Northampton have made a pretty ordinary start to the season and may well have a relegation battle to think about this year so although I am sure that they will battle gamely on, I strongly doubt that they will have that extra burning desire that an underdog team would require in order to pull of a shock win in these circumstances.
Of course, desire can count for nothing if you lack quality in your team. Do Northampton possess the quality to push Sunderland to any limit? This is another highly doubtful scenario. Northampton have looked very solid at home so far in the League this season but have leaked goals left, right and centre away from home and that is a worrying trend. There is one glimmer of hope in that the cobblers did pull of one of the shocks of the competition earlier on by winning away at Bolton, although admittedly this was aided by the Bolton side being down to ten men for the last fifty minutes or so of the game and also Wanderers do have a reputation for giving little respect to cup games.
I like the look of Sunderland -1.5 because they are far too strong for their opponents on paper, will want to win this match for sure and should make their massive home advantage count.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3 Points on Sunderland -1.5 @ 2.1 (Bet365)