HARTLEPOOL UNITED V SWINDON TOWN
Friday 3rd October 2008 19:45 BST

This match is one to be battled out between two teams of almost identical ability. Hartlepool and Swindon are the models of League One mediocrity quite frankly and I hope that nobody is offended by that because lets face it, it's better than being a fan of Luton right now!
With James Brown and Joel Porter providing a bit of a threat in front of goal, there should be no risk of relegation at the door of Pools (or the monkey hangers as they are known to a lot of opposition supporters) but they do have a problem with conceding goals too and have a very poor defence.
Swindon have got issues too. They are not quite as good in front of goal as hartlepool but by the same token, they are not quite as bad at the back so there isn't much to split the teams.
If we are looking for a decisive factor we should turn to the good old home advantage. Hartlepool have won two, drawn one and lost one of their opening four home games this season. Away from home Swindon have won one, drawn two and lost one of four.
If we look at some very basic figures that equates to a 50% success rate at home for Hartlepool going against a 75% defeat avoidance rate for Swindon and this is with two teams closely matched going against each other.
To pour even more scourn on the idea of a home advantage here we will have a very small crowd as it is a Friday night match. This is at a club that is hardly famed for creating a volatile atmosphere.
What hits me is that this would be a great lay of the home team because they are overvalued and all basic research points to an even money shot being poor value here. Straightforward logic. Jeff Stelling won't like me saying this though!
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3 Points Lay of Hartlepool @ 2..02 (Betfair)