SUPER LEAGUE AND NRL GRAND FINALS

ST HELENS V LEEDS RHINOS
Saturday 4th October 18:00 BST

Having already tipped up Saints as winners of the grand final before the start of the play offs and seen them cruise past this Leeds side last time out, I have absolutely no reason to backtrack on that or feel any doubt over it.
Saints have been the best Super League team for the past four seasons in my opinion and I think that should they triumph here that justice will have been done for a second  during this period, in the form of a grand final win. In 2005 Saints won the Regular Season but unfortunately were ravaged by injuries towards the end of the season and were the first season winners not to contest the final, in 2006 they swept the boards by doing the treble and last season they did everything but win the grand final.
On the the game day of last seasons grand final Saints were soundly beaten by a sharper Rhinos unit who got themselves well and truly up for it.
In terms of a handicap mark for this one it seems that the firms have pretty much got it spot on with the majority going for a mark of eight. We are unlikely to see a repeat of the thrashing that Saints dished out in the eliminator because Leeds will be hurting and will come back fighting but ultimately I have every faith that they will go marching on to seal yet another historic treble which would be rich reward for a season in which they had to battle back from a poor start and once again prove their doubters wrong.
2007 'Man of Steel' James Roby is a constant threat to opposition's and he put two past the Rhinos last time out. At 3.25, he represents good value to score at some stage during the contest. Even when he isn't in the starting thirteen he can score as is proved by his fifteen tries this season in fifteen starts and seventeen sub appearances. He should get plenty enough game time to get over the whitewash and as such his price is a stand out.
 
ALREADY RECOMMENDED - 4.5 Points on St Helens to win Grand Final @ 1.8 (Totesport, SkyBet)
(Article can be viewed here)
 
RECOMMENDATION - 0.5 Points stake James Roby to score try anytime @ 3.25 (Stan James)
 
MANLY SEA EAGLES V MELBOURNE STORM
Sunday 5th October 05:00 BST

I would never have believed that the Storm would be second favourites for any match up in the play-offs even after a mini-crisis, but we have that here and I take my hat off to Manly because they were largely written off having given up Michael Monaghan and Chris Hicks during off season. The Sea Eagles have battled their way through the season and impressed many a long the way. However I beg the question, on a one-off big occasion match can they really be favourites for the contest? I think it is a step too far and punters should look to capitalise.
The Storm have basically lost favouritism on the back of a single defeat which was an absolutely dreadful one-off performance against the NZ Warriors. They couldn't play that badly again if they tried one hundred times and it should be forgotten because the Storm have shown real resolve in winning at one-time fortress Suncorp of the Broncos and doing a number on the Sharks who were expected to really challenge them.
Last season saw this Melbourne side triumph over Manly and I see no reason why there cannot be a repeat job here because I personally would have reversed the prices somewhat and had Storm as roughly 1.8 favourites.
You can also get quite a large price about Melbourne leading at half time and full time. The Storm are fantastic defensively and should they build up a decent lead early, I expect them to hold onto it with a vice-like grip.
I'm looking forward to the NRL getting a good send off here.
 
RECOMMENDATIONS - 2.5 Points on Melbourne Storm @ 2.11 (Totesport, Canbet)
1 Point on Melbourne Storm HT / Melbourne Storm FT Double Result @ 3.1 (Canbet)
0.5 Point on Melbourne Storm -6 Alternative Handicap @ 4.3 (Totesport)