ENGLISH FOOTBALL WEEKEND

BLACKBURN ROVERS V MANCHESTER UNITED
October 4th 2008 - 17:30 BST

From a betting point of view, I could not care less of the result of this match because my focus is solely on the total number of goals to be scored but as ever the likelihood of victory will always go under consideration when looking to delivery any form of tip. After all you should always be pretty thorough in your research to avoid taking heavy financial hits with regularity!
If I were going to be picking the winner of this match for me it would have to be Manchester United because put simply they have the superior personnel and despite their slow start that has be plain for all to see, they are over the worst of it. But can I seriously justify tipping up a best priced 1.62 simply on the back of a knowledge of long term class and a hunch? Not at all. A more safer approach would be to look at the number of goals that we are likely to see in the ninety minutes of football.
In just one of Manchester United's five league matches so far this season has the 'Over 2.5' market delivered a success, which gives an overall success rate of 20% and makes the proposition seem to be lacking in temptation, but you have to consider that United were without Ronaldo for the first three of those and Dimitar Berbatov had only joined in time for the Liverpool game so the opening two were low scoring affairs for the Reds. And the final seed of doubt to throw into the equation is that one match was played against Chelsea and a contest between the two is always likely to have an element of caginess to it. This doesn't entirely invalidate the statistic, but it should at least place it firmly into perspective.
In five of Blackburn's six league matches so far this season the aforementioned overs mark has been exceeded, which gives an overall success rate of 83.33% and makes the proposition seem much more appealing at first glance. A shaky defence and the signing of Paul Robinson (of England notoriety) in the sticks replacing excellent stalwart stopper will appease nobody, especially when you have the likes of Berbatov, Ronaldo and Tevez attacking you. Robinson is expected to shake off a calf injury but it will perhaps not matter too much either way as he is hardly the model of consistency.
Blackburn do have goal scoring threats of their own in Roque Santa Cruz and Morten Gamst Pederson from the likely starters and Benni McCarthy who has returned to the squad and is likely to come off the bench at some stage so it is not like one-way traffic is to be expected.
If we even ignore my assertion that 20% success rate in the overs market for United is a fair reflection and roll with it, the eleven matches played by the two sides so far have still produced a success for overs on six occasions and therefore the overall success rate is 54.54% and at a best price of 2.06 and therefore considered a less than even chance, it should be considered very good value.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 2.5 Points BACK of Over 2.5 Goals (Betfair)
 
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V CRYSTAL PALACE
October 4th 2008 - 15:00 BST

One thing that I can never bring myself to do in football betting is back the draw (unless of course I am greening up after an initial lay) because to me it feels like you are a sitting duck waiting to be gubbed and once somebody scores, your attention then has to shift to the opposition team and hope for them to level things up. It is hard to explain really but I suppose my love of baseball with its guarantee of a winner always creeps in and makes me think of backing the draw as a real negative. However there are times when it is handy to keep the option of a draw on your side and not always as a winning bet option but more as a safety net just in case and this is where the useful 'Draw No Bet' or 'Scratch Asian Handicaps' can come into play.
I have respect for the draw as a possibility within football because as a player or fan, sometimes a real backs to the wall defencive effort resulting in a draw or sneaking a last minute goal to level things up after a defeat seemed likely, it can give you a real buzz. The same can apply to betting.
Anyway enough chat about the draw! My focus here is on finding a possible winner in a contest which on paper looks close.
Nottingham Forest have had an extremely tough start to life in the Championship and look very much out of their depth to date which is part thanks to their distinct lack of goalscoring threat thus far to opposition teams which has been shown up in the fact that they have not scored in each of their last three matches. This is becoming a problem for them and will be a concern going in to Saturday's match.
Crystal Palace have had a sticky start to this season which was a disappointment because of their incredible run to the play-offs last season masterminded by manager Neil Warnock. Performances have picked up of late and they are unbeaten from their last two matches which were a 1-0 victory over Charlton at home in midweek and a spirited 1-1 draw in front of the Sky cameras away at Ipswich last Saturday.
The reason that this match is difficult to judge really is because I feel like I am weighing up the home advantage given to Forest at the City Ground versus the advantage in superior personnel within the Palace ranks..
One factor that people will probably not have factored in is the negative feelings of the fans aired towards Colin Calderwood in recent times. There is a general feeling that the clock is very much ticking on Calderwood's reign at Forest and that we could see a change very soon unless things pick up dramatically such is the false expectation and level of delusion at the club. This pressure is unnecessary weight that will lay heavy on the players that go out on the field on Saturday as their counterparts have no such issues because Warnock worked miracles in getting Palace to the play-offs last season and has no job security concerns.
After much deliberation I've decided that Crystal Palace are the likelier winner of the match because Forest carry a pretty tame goalscoring threat which matches up nicely against a pretty tight defence that the Eagles have. I will be keeping the draw as a safety net but will have be hoping for the bank balance's sake that Mr Calderwood falls one step closer to being given the sack. Nothing personal Colin.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 2.5 Points on Crystal Palace on 0 (scratch) Asian Handicap @ 2.04 (Canbet) - Money back if it is drawn
 
BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION V CHELTENHAM TOWN
October 4th - 15:00 BST

Having gone into season with pretty high hopes it will be of disappointment to Albion that they are languishing in mid-table mediocrity right now but it seems that the root cause of their league position is their home form. Brighton have failed to win in each of their four home league matches to date this season and they need a boost quite frankly. Good for them that two have come at once!
The second worst team in the league (table wise) will roll into town and could prove to be the perfect relief and couple this with the surprise loan signing of Robbie Savage. Now frankly I cannot stand Savage and who can blame me really because he is obnoxious, riles opposition on purpose and lets be honest, isn't the most talented footballer going, but what you can say is that he deserves respect because he is a battler from start to finish of any match and a real cheerleader on the pitch. This spark could be just what Brighton need in order to resuscitate their self belief at home.
Cheltenham are a team that I expect to be in a relegation battle all season long and the only thing that gives them a flicker of a chance of survival is home form because they are zero from four away so far this season and have suffered some pastings on the road already.
This is not a fixture that I will label as a banker but if this was the first game of the season right now, I am sure that Brighton would be shorter than a best price of 1.8.
Perhaps the best way of looking at this fixture is not so much that we are placing a huge leap of faith in Albion but more that we are betting on a poor Cheltenham side to lose their fifth consecutive game on the road against a good team because when all is said and done, Micky Adams's side are a fine opponent at this level and as Manchester City can vouch for, they can mix it with the big boys on occasion.
Look to the irritant with the long flowing locks to provide some inspiration from the touchline initially and when he gets his expected second half appearance.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3.5 Points on Brighton @ 1.8 (Stan James)
 
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN V LEICESTER CITY
October 4th 2008  - 15:00 BST

After a truly abysmal start to this season, the Terriers are entertaining a team that is arguably the best in the league.
Leicester City are top of the division right now sitting on nineteen points and have lost just one game so far, they are unbeaten on the road and have won three out of their four away league games which gives them a 75% away success rate and level best with Leeds who were the pre-season favourites for the title. What is most remarkable about this start really is the the Foxes have conceded just one goal in that four game period which tells you just how strong that they are at the back at this level. Don't be fooled into thinking that goals have been a problem for them either as the East Midlands team have scored a total of eight in those games.
Huddersfield were fancied by nearly every one of the sports writers of a famous daily betting newspaper as a dark horse for the division and I must admit that I did and still do think that they are a decent team, just not quite that good.
In their four home games to date, the team from Yorkshire have won just one of them, drawn one and perhaps of more relevance have lost two which gives them a 50% loss rate at the Galpharm stadium.
My mind is already made up on who I fancy to win this match but before making any recommendations the prices need to be checked and we need to get some value out of this...
You have got to love the way the bookies have priced this one up because 2.5 about a Leicester victory is a huge price. We are talking about a team top of the league playing against a team in the lower-middle of it, a 75% away success rate matched against a 50% home loss rate, eight away goals scored and one goal conceded against six home goals scored and eight conceded and a team that usually has large numbers of fans supporting them away from home at a place that has been quietened down by a dismal start. If you want a final exclamation point placing on this one then just compare some of the personnel involved: We have striker Steve Howard and midfielder Matt Oakley who were playing in premiership last season for Derby, a top class Bulgarian international defender in Alexsander Tunchev, excellent left winger Lloyd Dyer and a man that is scoring for fun this season in Matty Fryatt leading the line for Leicester. Nuff said? 2.5 is huge and the Foxes have proved profitable to follow so far this year.
If you want me to talk about possible dangers then I will, if not then skip to the tip. Huddersfield can be more of a force at home if they can get their supporters to create a real atmosphere around the ground and if this occurs then their chances will be increased a little but they will need some more help in the form of a pretty bad performance from Leicester and whilst this isn't impossible but is not likely. So don't cry into your beer just yet Huddersfield fans, there is always hope.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3 Points on Leicester City @ 2.5 (Stan James)
 
WEST HAM UNITED V BOLTON WANDERERS
5th October 2008 - 13:30 BST

The little maestro Gianfranco Zola is so incredibly difficult to dislike. Having taken over at a club where the fans are notoriously hard to please and been met with a lot of negative press about his lack of managerial experience and his Chelsea connections it was expected that there would be some serious teething problems for him, shows what we really know doesn't it?!! Having been talked about as potential struggler's because of the chaos regarding Alan Curbishley's departure and selling a few of their players, it seemed that things could only get worse for them but the Italian has came in and life is rosy again as he has been in charge of three league games and overseen three victories.
Bolton are by no means a poor side by any stretch of the imagination but they were always prone to struggle this season and to be honest, their league position is a little harsh on them and we should judge them at the end of the season rather than now.
What cannot be escaped is another interesting set of statistics in that West Ham have won all three of their home games so far in the Premier League this season whereas Bolton have lost each of their three away fixtures to date. That is hard to get out of ones mind isn't it?
Wanderers will no doubt adopt a physical and stifling approach that they are famed for in order to try and make life difficult for the Hammers and whilst this is a viable tactic and has had success on occasion in the past, it is hard to see it working against a team that will be quicker and has superior footballing skill that is cheered on by a partisan home crowd.
Nearly natural and statistical logic points to a West Ham win so I am going to be a good boy and agree.
Don't get too comfortable just yet though Hammers because the lovely court of sports arbitration has ruled that West Ham must now pay compensation to Sheffield United for their wrongdoings in the whole Carlos Tevez saga which seemed to rumble on forever more. The sort of figure being thrown about by the media is £30 million or so. Imagine how much of a problem this could cause Zola and his ability to do his job without restriction in the future and the worst thing is that their is no right of appeal. Get your cheque books out boys because although true justice wasn't done in West Ham being relegated due to that three point deduction which was expected and then not given, but at least the Blades will be able to buy in some quality players in order to have a great shot at getting promoted.
 
RECOMMENDATION - 3 Points BACK of West Ham United @ 1.94 (Betfair)
 
Hope you all have a successful weekend