Thursday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Thursday 20th November

I guess I'll address the talking point of last week first. I try to write what I think I would like to read and to be honest some journalist type thinking their opinion is super-important doesn't appeal to me. On the other side of the coin, someone who is supposed to be talking about NFL but dodging the issue of the week doesn't appeal to me either, so I guess I'll give my opinion for what little it's worth.
 
There are rigged games in all sports at times, but there has been some pretty extreme journalism these last few days regarding the Chargers/Steelers ending. Some have put the fact that the result suited the bookies and the fact the decision was wrong together and determined that the game was rigged.
The entire theory seems to have been born out of the above facts, plus the fact that PIT had a large number of penalties against them. While it's never wise to assume anything is as it appears, this one seemed entirely above board. Mistakes are made all the time in the NFL review booth, not to mention that PIT had already started to head for the locker room. Even IF the officials deliberately made the wrong call, it's far more likely that it was because there were players everywhere and they couldn't be bothered to organise an extra point attempt than some giant conspiracy designed to fill the already overflowing coffers of the Vegas sports books.
 
Finally, from a gambling perspective (as opposed to a fan one), it shouldn't really matter. If you're thinking of suing the officials involved, then yes it matters. If not, then nothing is changing. The Chargers covered the spread by whatever means and those who backed the Steelers had a horrible ending to the game, first thinking they had won, then finding out they had lost.
For those willing to move on with their lives though, it reminds us of something very important in handicapping:
 
The team who are the underdogs/behind have many hidden advantages.
 
Almost every unforeseen event in a game of skill favours the player or team least likely to win. The most obvious thing is injuries. It's much easier to replace Rex Grossman than it is Tom Brady. Likewise if there's going to be a bad decision, it's more likely to be against the team that are doing well. After all, they have more good decisions to get wrong in the first place. I'm sure you can come up with many more examples.
It's for this reason that in the absence of other information, you would prefer to be on the underdog. A lot of the time you can't work out exactly what's going to help you, but you do have to allow a little for SOMETHING helping you. Learning to quantify this is of course a combination of experience and luck.
 
Anyway, enough of that, hopefully that reminder is worth more in the long term than whatever was lost on the game.
 
On to tonight's game.
 
At the time of writing (Thursday morning) the weather forecast is for 14mph winds and maybe some snow.
While that in itself isn't much cause for excitement, it's coming on the back of very little rest for the players and both teams have just come from gruelling contests.
Cinci have shown a willingness to try to run the ball - even when it was proven to be difficult - and hopefully they will continue that. Even if they don't, PIT should be able to get pressure on Fitzpatrick, and although he's starting to improve, it's hard to envisage him doing much damage to the Steelers.
 
On the other side of the ball, Ben's finally worked out that he can be a hero by not trying to be the hero. He managed the Chargers game very well and played a much needed turnover free game. Pittsburgh should learn from the mistakes of the Eagles on Sunday and run the ball into the Bengals over and over, with some short stuff from Ben mixed in. It's not that the Bengals have much of a Pass D, it's just that they'll let you run just as easily and it takes away any chances of them getting lucky. They're not Detroit bad, there is no need to give them a chance to get lucky like Philly did.
I don't know the state of the field, but I think it's a reasonable guess that it's not going to be great.
 
I think that the PIT D will be too strong here but I can see both teams eating up time on the clock in a typical Steelers grind.  Traditionally you should bet the big dog and the Unders here, but I don't fancy that on this occasion, scores of 17-3, 12-0, 24-7, etc etc look way too worrying in this one. Cinci covering the 10.5 isn't just relying on stopping PIT, but actually scoring some points themselves. I think the double-needs kill any correlation.
 
On balance I think that 34.5 might seem low to some, but I'm happy to take it on. For the record, the first game was 38-10 to PIT but I don't see why that would have much bearing on today.

STATS
 
Pick: 3pts under 34.5, 2.0 at Pinnaclesports.

Lori