Wednesday Night Basketball

By Divol

Ljubljana v Rome



25th November 19:30 GMT

Not the easiest bet, but I will still take it.

I'm not a big fan of first round in this league, since there is too big a quality difference between the teams. Still, here we got almost an even chance and I like it. Rome off three consecutive losses, including first Euroleague loss to Maccabi and humiliation from Siena that won 83 – 58!  They need this win badly for their confidence and they got the last team in their group without a win. More than that, as it looks right now, Ljubljana will play without Matt Walsh, Euroleague's top scorer.

Olimpia have built a nice roster this season, but without Walsh they will depend solely on Becirovic who played last season in Rome. The problem is that for now he was pretty quiet with 10.5 ppg and 3.3 assists.  Slokar and Ozbolt were suppose to be legitimate Euroleague players, but real disappointments so far in this tournament with 6.8 and 5.00 ppg only each.

We got two opposite teams. Ljubljana looks good in Adriatic League, but fails in Euroleague and Rome the other way around.  Rome has a decent roster and should bounce back a bit with a win tonight.

Pick: Rome -1.5, 1.90 odds – 2 units play -


Khimky v Sofot



25th November 17:00 GMT

I don't think that there was a team worst than Sofot in the history of Euroleague with investment – return result.   Sofot make a good squad year after year, but still get embarrassed each time and fight with teams half their budget for the final Top 16 spot and lose most of the time.

This year Sofot managed to get one win, but lost to Oldenburg, one of the weakest teams ever in the league. Great roster, Logan, Ewing, Woods, Jagla and etc... But one common to all the seasons. Same coach. Pacesas continues and maybe he is the problem?

Anyway, Khimki at home won over Madrid and despite barely beating Milano and Oldenburg, I do think they are due to explode against a weak opponent and not many teams fall under the description as Sofot do. A good team on paper that teams give respect to, but terrible on the floor.

I just can't see Prokom scoring 75+ points here, but their dreadful defense means that Khimky can score 85+ points. 87 – 73 sounds about right, maybe even a bit higher margin, 90 – 73. Can't say that 3 – 6 points is too big of a difference, but I would still take Khimky here. Maybe Khimky with the line at HT is the better way to go here, but both bets got decent value.

Pick: Khimky -11.5 for 2.0 odds - 2 units - Pinnacle


Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets



26th November 01:05 GMT

It would have been 4 – 5 units play if not for two things:

a) Wolves looking as the worst team of this franchise for the last decade.
b) If Denver wouldn't have had such an easy time playing here the last few seasons.

Still, I do think that Denver are the exact type of teams that can beat a good team by 40 points and then to lose to a poor team. They don't have the right mentality, the type that Boston (despite the bad form), Spurs and Lakers have.  Wolves aren't such a bad team as well. Flynn is a decent rookie that maybe gets out shadowed by Evans and Jennings as rookies backcourt goes, but not a failure by any means I believe.

Brewer and Gomes go to work as well and I'm sure that even without Love, if Jefferson would have had the same season this year as he had last year, Wolves would have ended the season with better record than last year. I do think that Denver can overlook this game tonight. No special motivation, the team is in decent form and are favourites. No reason for them not to settle for a 4 – 6 points win only.

The problem is that when you want to win by 4 – 6 points you can lose as well.  If not the loss to the Clippers by the Nuggets, I would have taken Wolves ML as well, but now I will settle for a line bet only.



Pick: Wolves +9, 1.92 – 2.5 units play - Expekt


Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks



26th November 01:35 GMT

I really thought we would see a shorter number here for Dallas. Dallas are in the second game of B2B, they are injured, but still, it's not like Houston are in perfect condition. Battier is in doubt, Yao is out for the season of course and I doubt T-Mac will play today. On the other hand, Marion is probably back and that is great for Dallas.

Mavericks lost to GSW and will be looking to rebound quickly. This is their first game in a three games in four days road trip and Dallas play Pacers and Cleveland as well on this trip. A loss here and a probable one to Cleveland and they will be a game away from 4 games losing streak.

This is a revenge spot for Houston, but they also play against the Spurs after that, so it's not like they will be 100% focused on this game only (not more than usual that is).

Dallas are the better team here, not a question for me and should bounce back after the loss last night.  Brooks is a solid player on offense and Kidd can't guard him, but Kidd is a smart player as well and can post up against small Brooks and can run as well.  Marion is a big advantage if Battier is out, with Ariza against both Marion and Terry. Dampier is out, but it's not that important against teams like Rockets and Warriors that play without strong big guys.

Dirk against Scola is an interesting matchup, but Dirk wins it and I like my chances betting on a better team, that wants to win against a team that failed to beat other good teams at home and while winning on the road against Utah and Lakers, they failed to win at home against Suns and Lakers.



Pick: Dallas to win, 2.53 odds, 3 units play - Pinnacle