Saturday Night NBA

By Divol

Cleveland Cavaliers v Dallas Mavericks



29th November 00:35 GMT

Dallas are in great form despite losing to GSW at home, while Cleveland struggle so far this season with Shaq and without him. Still, having said that, I'm on Cleveland tonight without a doubt. Ifeel that Dallas went on this road trip looking to make it 2 - 1, focusing on Pacers and Houston. They played those games with great energy, not thinking about the next games (or at least, that's how I felt). Dallas gave their players more rest last night than Cleveland so maybe they a bit more fresh in this B2B game for both teams, but I still believe in the home team. Cleveland come home after a loss to Charlotte, winning only two of the last seven games ATS. They finally got Shaq back, but he didn't make the difference against the Cats.

Tonight he can make a huge difference. Unlike many Cavs games, as against Toronto for example, Shaq was a miss match on both ends of the floor with Bargniani shooting easily from mid range and three point line without Shaq focusing on him. This time, while there is no Dampier to guard Shaq, there isn't a big guy to punish Cleveland for Shaq heavy presence. Gooden, Hamphries and Singleton aren't the players that will make Brown adjust his play (not that he would know how). Also, without Wright that moved to Toronto and Howard that injured, Dallas have big problem defending LeBron. Marion still injured despite playing and even when healthy he will have big trouble guarding LeBron. Beaubois looks like a player that can try and guard LeBron or help Marion do so, but here we have biggest problem for Dallas.

Do you go with Terry, the only player in Dallas that can shoot three pointers (area that Dallas has big problems with), but he can't help with LeBron or do you go with Beaubois, allowing Cleveland to close the paint and let Dallas shoot three pointers. I also doubt Dallas will be able to play Barea and Kidd together as they like to do, since the match ups will be even worse. Cleveland off a loss, have four days rest and then meet the Suns in a not easy game and I expect them to be in total focus. Dallas playing three games in four days after getting two wins in tough places to win in. I'm with Cleveland here; I believe they should win this one easy.



Pick: Cleveland -6, 1.97 - 4 units play - 188bet


Milwaukee Bucks v Orlando Magic



29th November 02:05 GMT

This is not the safest bet, but it makes simple sense. I'm looking at this game and can't see any reason for both teams not to make it 90+ points. Just can't see it end 95 - 85 or something like that.

With 194 total, we need both teams to score 97 points or one to go Over 90 points and other to go over 100 points to have an Over. Here I'm not sure that any team will go Over 100 points, but I can see also a chance for both to do so, so I'm not ruling any scenario out. Still, with this total, even 99 - 96 will win this bet for us and this is a score I can see happen easily.

As I said last night, without Bogut, Bucks are much more vulnerable in the paint, but also looking to make as much fast breaks as possible.  Big luck winning last night's Over for the Bucks, but most of the game, it was an easy Over tempo, but two droughts and a few missed FT in the fourth quarter made the bet in need of a miracle to happen and it did with a basket and a foul, deep in garbage time with 5 seconds on the clock.

As long as Bucks continue with their Over streak (5 Over in a row) but do it by 1 - 2 baskets, the total will not only stay down, but go even further down, with all Under backers hoping the luck will go with them this time (and maybe they will be right occasionally). So far in the 5 Over streak, we had two Over by a point, one Over due to OT and then it was only by 2 points, one Over by 5 points and one huge Over by 17 points.

Tonight I believe Magic will do what they do best and work the paint with Howard, while jacking up three pointers, while Bucks will Redd and Jennings will try to go on runs on every occasion. 103 - 99 seems about right score here (for the Magic).



Pick: Over 193 points, 1.91 odds - 3 units play - Bwin