Monday Night NBA

By Divol

Chicago Bulls v Sacramento Kings



22nd December 01:05 GMT
ESPN

I really like the Under here today. This is the first time this season I'm taking Kings Under after all the times I took Over, so I hope the bet wins.

Chicago have really tightened their defense lately. The latest Over came after four Unders in a row and this bet was dead Under as well, just the OT saved Over backers. Kings on the other hand, really struggle with their shots on this road trip. Three road games (with Wizards at home in the middle), three Unders I do think this will be no different. Kings shots are simply not hitting on this trip. They are also with 5 Unders in the last 6 road games.

As for the game itself, Kings didn't play well in Milwaukee on defense. They just met a really bad team, a team that is a level below Chicago I believe. Bucks are among the 3 - 4 worst teams in the league I believe and Kings just took advantage of Bucks poor effort.  Chicago won in Sacramento playing better than the Kings and should do the same today.



Picks:

Under 199, 1.90 - 2.5 units play - 188bet

Chicago -3.5, 1.91 - 2 units play - Jetbull


Orlando Magic v Utah Jazz



22nd December 00:05 GMT

My main reasoning for this bet is the fact that Utah were on the ropes but still managed to win due to great support of the home crowd in the third quarter.  I do believe that it was a tough loss to recover from to Orlando and they will surely remember it, since it happened just the other week.

Carter comes from 1 from 14 shooting night against Portland; still hitting the important FT's and I believe that both he and Howard who were mediocre at best the last two games as well, will produce better numbers today.
Nelson can be back today already and while I really think it will be a dumb move, just as getting him back too soon in the NBA Finals was the wrong move, I do believe it can make the crowd energized, as they should be anyway to carry their team over their rivals as Salt Lake City's crowd did.

In the end I do believe that a great home team with revenge should easily beat mediocre at best road team that lost to much weaker teams than the Magic.



Pick: Magic -7.5,1.92 - 3.5 units play - 188bet


Indiana Pacers v Milwaukee Bucks



22nd december 00:05 GMT

I do think that Bucks are a bad team. Way worst than Indiana, even without Granger. Pacers have actually played decent this trip, but came a bit short each time. I do believe that at home they should win all the mediocre and below teams of the East.

Pacers recently have been a mediocre team. Didn't threaten the big teams and not even the playoff most of the times, but have still been solid and at home even better. I'm looking at both teams and can't find even one advantage for the Bucks.  Actually don't expect a blow out, but Pacers should win this one by 5 - 9 points I believe. Just quality difference with home court advantage type of bet.

The history also supports Pacers play with home team dominating the games between the teams.



Pick: Pacers -1.5, 1.94 - 3 units play - Pinnacle


Phoenix Suns v Cleveland Cavaliers



22nd December 02:05 GMT

I really like the position that Suns are in right now. The team plays three road games the entire month (from middle of December till the middle of January) and only one B2B the entire time. It should really allow them to focus fully on the big games. They beat the Spurs, now got Cleveland and then will play Lakers and Boston, both in Phoenix. I do believe they can get 4 – 0 or 3 – 1 (splitting the Lakers and Boston games that come one after the other). I will mention it more than once in the next month, but Suns have got a terrible February, playing a lot of road games and having strong opponents, including a few tough B2B and 3 in 4. Their only luck is the ASG break in the middle, but they know they must use this month to make a run to establish themselves in the second place in the West (I can add that Denver's two losses can also motivate them).

Cleveland just don't do well on the road, don't do well B2B, don't do well against strong teams and simply don't do well. Shaq's addition just doesn't work and despite him being focused tonight, it won't be easy for him against Frye and even against Amare (I assume Huckson will be on Frye). Nash and J-Rich both in great form and I just hope Richardson is in full health. 

Suns are without a loss so far this season at home and will be looking for their 20th win in a row at home. One thing really worries me and that is the fact that the last home loss of the Suns was last year to... you guessed it, Cleveland.

Still, it will make me only lower my units, but it's still a play.



Pick: Suns -2.5, 1.96 - 2 units play - Pinnacle