Thursday Night Basketball

By Divol

Siena v Real Madrid



11th february 19:30 GMT

I agree with those that say that in the Top 16 stage, the most important thing is to protect your home floor. But, the difference between the better teams and the weaker teams is to know when and how you get that road win, that makes your life a lot easier and should provide that extra point you need to finish in the first place of the group.

Siena right now is the weakest team in the group. As shocking as it sounds, after 80 minutes of play in the Top 16 level, Siena played the worst game from all teams. They barely won at home against Maccabi, they got easily (surprisingly easily) beaten in Turkey and Messina knows that a win here and he almost for sure secures not only a place in the Quarter Finals of Euroleague, but does it from the first place in the group as well.

As for the H2H, we got two brothers facing each other, but the story here is Jaric against Mcintyre. Both are veterans, 30+ years of age, both done a thing or two in basketball already and both are there to lead their teams, both from PG position. While Mcintyre started this season his fourth season in Siena and been the leader of the team for those years, Jaric was brought to make the needed change for Real. Mcintyre so far was terrible in the Top 16 level. His RKG was -3 and 4 so far and he is the main reason Siena looks the way they have been so far. Jaric on the other hand, been much better and he is on the team less than two months, unlike Mcintyre and as time goes on, he should just continue to improve and fit the team even better. Mcintyre is 1.74 tall PG. Jaric on the other hand is 2.01, very tall PG and it won't be easy to deal with. Add to that Lull and Prigioni, both also good PG that know how to defend and Mcintyre is looking at a very tough game tonight, especially since his replacements don't come near the level of Real's bench.

Real can win this one, and I believe they probably won't settle for minimal loss.

Picks:

Real +3.5, 1.87 – 2.5 units play - 5Dimes

Real to win, 2.35 odds – 1.5 units play - Betfred


Barcelona v Panathinaikos



11th february 19:45

Well I can't argue with all those that bet on Barcelona. Pao are in bad form in Euroleague and things are not looking too good for them, while Barcelona, despite recent drop of form, are still the most impressive team in Europe in the first half of the season.

Still, having said that, I bet on the visitors today. Why? First of all, it seems that the bookies took Barcelona's performances this season and Pao's bad form under consideration setting this line, while they completely ignored Barcelona's drop of form as well.

I also feel that Pascual still needs to prove himself against top European coaches with money on the table. It's nice to beat the injured Real in Madrid against Messina or to win the cup before the season. But still, if you want to be the best, you need to be able to do that when it counts and right now it could be very important game (depends on the outcome of Partizan in an early game today).

Picks:

Panathinaikos +8, 1.95 – 3 units play - Pinnacle

Panathinaikos to win – 4.29 odds – 1 unit play - Pinnacle


Cleveland Cavaliers v Orlando Magic



12th february 01:05 GMT

Cleveland are in great form right now, but so are the Magic. Both teams have a chance to get an important win. Cleveland can make it a two game gap from the Lakers (and with tie break advantage it's actually 3 games) at the top of the league, while Magic can exploit Hawks and Boston losses last to make it B2B win tonight that will put them in a 2.5 game advantage on the Hawks and 3 games advantage on Boston for the 2nd place in the East battle (and Magic will win tie break against either of them). So this one is big for both teams, while Magic owned this series in 2009, winning 8 of the 10 games ATS.

In such a big match, to give such a big line against a team in a good form is wrong I believe. I think that 5 points or a 5.5 points line would have been far more accurate to be honest.

More than that. Magic still create big miss matches, with Pietrus and Barnes being able to defend James, Lewis still is a very big threat on Cleveland's defense.



Pick: Magic +6.5, 1.91 odds – 3.5 units play - Paddy Power

Divol