Monday Night NBA

By Divol

New Jersey Nets v San Antonio Spurs



29th March 23:35 GMT

9 - 4 in favour of the Under in Spurs games that come in the second leg of a B2B. In those 4 Over results, it was Over by 1 point against Orlando, by 5 points against Thunder (before the OT), by 3 points against Hornets and the only clear Over was against the Clippers, where the Over was by 10 points. If we take the tendency of the Nets for the Under and the fact that we have Bavetta as the ref and we have a good bet today. The only worry is that Spurs after good wins and great D, can slow down against such a poor rival.



Pick: Under 192.5, 1.93 – 2.5 units play - Pinnacle

 
Utah Jazz v New York Knicks


 
30th March 01:05 GMT

The Knicks are probably the best team this year in the 4th quarter. The problem is that in 90% of the time, if not more, that doesn’t help them get more wins. On the other hand, they suck big time in the 1st half. The last 10 games, Knicks won 5 out of 10 games (all but one as dogs), but lost 8 of 10 1st half. This is a team that flourishes in the garbage time.

Utah on the other hand won 6 of the last 10 games and gained the lead at HT in 5 of the 6 wins. Utah also had the lead at HT in 4 of the last 5 games, including the loss to the Pacers. Utah won only by 2 points against the Knicks in MSG earlier this season, but lead by 17 points at HT. The last time the teams met in Utah, was a year ago (364 days to be exact). Utah won by 8 points, the line was as today, 11 points. But, at HT, Utah had the lead of 21 points. Even when Knicks won in MSG last season, Utah had the lead by HT of 5 points. I believe that Utah can get it done by half time, but since both teams are unstable, medium stakes only.



Pick: Utah -6 at HT, 1.90 – 2.5 units play – Bet365


New Orleans Hornets v Los Angeles Lakers



30th March 00:05 GMT

I like Lakers chances to win this, but I like the Over even better. First of all, I'm looking back at the games they played recently and I see that in all games that were easy for them, the game was Over or really close to it. The Under against the Wizards was only 2.5 points under the total and Under in Sacramento was a point Under the total set. The games were easy Over against GSW and Houston and the only game that didn’t fall in the pattern were the games against the Wolves. On the other hand, matches that were against tough opponents, Spurs, Thunder, Suns and Magic were dead Unders. Lakers just stop to defend in the 4th against weak rivals. 32 points from Houston in the 4th, 32 from Washington, 28 from the Wolves, 31 from Sacramento and 34 from GSW. I won’t say it’s higher that the teams scored in other quarters, because many times it wasn’t the case, but I watched some of the games and Lakers just stopped playing D when the game was over.

The Hornets are trying to play a much higher pace with Bowers. It not always works, but many times does. CP3 made so far in 3 games only 23 points (less than 8 points a game) and made 9 shots from 25 attempts. He should improve from game to game and especially playing Fisher, a good defender but getting old and Paul really should handle him.

I feel it has value, but too many times the total came 2 – 5 points short of the Over, so I will take it only for a small bet.



Pick: Over 200 points, 1.90 – 2 units play – Expekt


Bonus Pick:

New Orleans Hornets v Los Angeles Lakers & Denver Nuggets v Dallas Mavericks

Double: Los Angeles Lakers (1.41) & Dallas (1.46), 2.06 – 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol