Thursday Night Basketball

By Divol

Real Madrid v Barcelona



1st April 18:00 GMT

I didn't watch the 3rd game to be honest, but I did follow the score and check the stats after the game. Navarro scored 24 points shooting 66% from three point line and Barcelona as a team shot 50% from 3pt line. Both teams had equal number of ball possessions, but the execution was much better on Barcelona’s side.

Today I believe things will be different. After all, in a match between two good teams it will be strange to see Barcelona scoring better than Real again on Real's home floor. Barcelona has one huge advantage shooting wise and that is Navarro. Madrid doesn't have even one shooter that comes close to "La Bomba". Still, he had a terrible shooting slump for a month and to assume he is out of it, due to one great game? I think it's too soon to tell.

Tomic is the key to the series and while it is weird to see the old and experienced Real mark a young thin boy such as Tomic as their most important player, he has the advantage on any Barca player due to the combination of height + softness in the hands. I think it can and should be the time of veteran blancos as Reyes and Lull and maybe even Bullock to appear.

Pick: Real to win, 2.25 odds - 3 units play - Bwin


Partizan Mobtel v Maccabi Tel Aviv



1st April 19:45 GMT

The right line here is PK I believe as Partizan have all the pressure. Normally the better team with their back to the wall should feel the pressure but the advantage of Partizan can easily turn to a disadvantage. It's not easy for those young boys to play in front of 23k fans, best friends, family and etc... that can't wait to celebrate the progress to the Final 4. In game 3 Partizan won and were the better team but they had a really great day shooting wise and refs called the game really tight and hurt Maccabi's ability to pressure. Tonight I believe things should be different. Maccabi proved in the first two games that they can play Partizan and so far neither team have been capable to produce two great games in a row. Maccabi will focus on rebounds and to prevent the passing deep to the paint and I believe that with the natural skid of Partizan shooting percentage, Maccabi should win. 78 - 73 is my projected score here.

Pick: Maccabi to win, 2.55 - 4 units play - Sportingbet


Denver Nuggets v Portland Trailblazers



2nd April 02:35 GMT

Denver are in a must win position. They were in second place in the West for 90% of the regular season. But 5 losses in the last 6 games did not only cause Denver to drop from 2nd place but all the way to 5th place, meaning they won't have HCA advantage throughout the playoffs. Denver has this game and a home game against the Clippers before playing Thunder on the road and Lakers at home and they need to come to those two games after two wins, today and against the Clippers.

Portland are on a nice run winning 9 of their last 10 games. Still, before this streak they lost to Denver once already by 12 points. This game is big for both teams but I would see the Nuggets here as a team that desperately needs the win, while Portland just wants it. If you add the fact that Denver play at home and are still the better team, this is very good game to bet on them I believe.



Pick: Denver -5, 1.93 - 4.5 units play - Pinnacle


Dallas Mavericks v Orlando Magic



2nd April 00:05 GMT

I thought that the line will be Dallas -3 and odds of 1.65 - 1.7 for Dallas and then I would have skipped the game. But to see Dallas as dogs? This is one of the rare occasions where I believe the bookies have got the line wrong.

Dallas were on a small slide after a great start after the ASG break and after winning 13 in a row they cooled down losing 4 of their next 6 games, including a home loss to the Knicks and a road loss to New Orleans. Still they rebounded well, winning three in a row, all three not easy wins - GSW and Memphis on the road and Denver at home. Now today they play B2B off overtime, but still, Dallas fights for 2nd place in the West. They can't afford themselves to stop fighting, especially with them playing only 2 games in the next 5 days, so they will have some time to rest after this game.

Orlando been decent lately, but nothing extraordinary. 8 wins in the last 10 games but lost all three last games ATS. Many players are questionable and even if they play, they will play injured. That goes especially for Carter who is hurting and will play through pain or maybe be a last minute DNP. A simple value bet here.



Pick: Dallas to win, 2.18 odds - 3 units play - Pinnacle

Divol