Monday Night NBA

By Divol

Cleveland Cavaliers v Chicago Bulls



20th April 01:05 GMT

It's not easy, at least for me, to take Over bet in playoffs. For me it's the time when teams lock their defence and both teams sure know how to play defence. Still, looking at the statements teams made after the match and the percentage they shot in Game 1, leads to conclusion that this time game should go Over 190 points.

The teams scored 179 points in game 1, but they did it with 7 shots in 30 attempts from 3pt, 71.5% from FT and 44% from the field. Usually they score 73.5% from FT, 47% from the field and 35.5% from 3pt, so there is a lot of room for improvement. More than that, Bulls put their focus on rebounding better and going on fast breaks, while Cleveland were talking about better execution after missing many easy shots. I fully expect Cleveland to score 100+ points and Chicago to score 90+ points. A result of 105 - 96 sounds about right to me and its 10 points above the total set for today. I also expect Deng to step up. I will take a really small bet on that because he played poorly since coming back from the injury and was quiet playing Cleveland so far, but Bulls need him to step up for them to have a chance in this series. He missed at least 3 very easy shots in the first game and I believe he can finish this game with 16 - 18 points.



Picks:

Over 191 points, 1.91 odds - 2.5 units play - VCBet

Deng Over 14.5 points, 1.81 odds - 1 units play - Pinnacle


Denver Nuggets v Utah Jazz



20th April 03:35 GMT

I hate taking Over 30+ points for a player total, especially after he scored 42 points against the same team just two days ago, but how can I not do this today?

Utah has only one true SF in their roster and it's Korver. They don't have any player to guard Carmelo. Miles is 5cm shorter and doesn't have the body to guard him; Korver can't guard him as well. Miles got in to foul trouble in the first game and it should repeat again. I just can't see any reason why Denver won't use their biggest miss match that happens to be their biggest star time after time again. With the injury of Kirilenko they lost the only solid defender on Carmelo and Okur's injury should prevent Sloann to try Millsap on Carmelo as well. One more reason I like this bet is that last game, Carmelo shot the ball well, but he hardly went to the line. He usually goes more than 7 times a game to shoot FT's. This time he shot only 4. I can see him getting 3 - 4 points more today from the line than he did in Game 1 and even if his shooting drops a bit, he should score 34 - 36 points I believe. I think that even if this bet loses tonight, to take Over in Carmelo prop will bring money by the end of the series.

That brings me to the second bet. Without Okur and Kirilenko, Utah are a very limited team. Lack one of the best defenders in the league and lack a very solid shooter that ended a season very well defence wise. They have got Williams that will match Billups and Boozer that will face K-Mart and Nene. Denver have got so many weapons in their arsenal that I think that the line is too small here. I can easily see Utah getting blown out today. Utah will need a huge game from Williams to stay in the game and both he and Boozer were solid in Game 1 and it wasn't close to being enough.  I like also Nene to score Over 14 points today, but decided it was too much to have three bets on the same side.



Picks:

Denver -7, 2.00 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Carmelo Over 30.5 points, 2.18 odds - 2 units play - Pinnacle

Divol